Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 6

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Meinau (Strasbourg)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Strasbourg		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.35	3.55	2.12
	3.34	3.62	2.23
	3.06	3.21	2.35	Watch
	3.38	3.73	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↓ (3.73)	3.52 ↓ (3.7)	2.21 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Strasbourg
29.3%

Draw
27.3%

Olympique Marseille
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

25.5%

49.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.4%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Strasbourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Olympique Marseille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olympique Marseille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.6%	22.2%	42.2%

Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Strasbourg will win (votes: 16 - 36.4%). Marseille will win (votes: 18 - 40.9%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 26.4% – 55.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Strasbourg (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Marseille (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Marseille (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Strasbourg (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Strasbourg (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Marseille (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Penders M. (G) 23. Sarr M. 24. Hogsberg L. 6. Doukoure I. 32. Barco V. 7. Moreira D. 3. Chilwell B. 22. Doue G. 80. Lemarechal F. 16. Paez K. 10. Emegha E. (C)	1. Rulli G. (G) 62. Murillo M. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 21. Aguerd N. 32. Medina F. 17. O'Riley M. 23. Hojbjerg P. 22. Weah T. 8. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 17. Amougou M. 29. El Mourabet S. 20. Godo M. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 83. Luis R. 2. Omobamidele A. 42. Ouattara A. 9. Panichelli J.	97. Aubameyang P. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 33. Emerson 10. Greenwood M. 26. Nadir B. 28. Pavard B. 34. Vaz R. 18. Vermeeren A.
Coaches
Rosenior L.	Maldera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Aguerd N. 🟨,
27', Murillo M. 🟨,
38', O'Riley M. 🟨,
45', Balerdi L. 🟨,
45+1', Emegha E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lemarechal F. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
46', Paez K. ↓, Ouattara A. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Ouattara A. ⚽, Emegha E. (A),
58', Weah T. ↓, Emerson ↑,
58', Paixao I. ↓, Greenwood M. ↑,
58', Gouiri A. ↓, Aubameyang P. ↑,
62', Emegha E. ↓, Panichelli J. ↑,
66', Amo-Ameyaw S. 🟨,
78', 1 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽,
84', Doue G. ↓, Omobamidele A. ↑,
84', Barco V. ↓, El Mourabet S. ↑,
85', Medina F. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
85', O'Riley M. ↓, Pavard B. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Murillo M. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Strasbourg won 1.

Strasbourg is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Marseille has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Marseille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Marseille will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Strasbourg: Enciso J. (Knee Injury) Nanasi S. (Shoulder Injury) Nzingoula R. (Red Card) Oyedele M. (Injury) Sow S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Strasbourg won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Strasbourg won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
21.09.25	Paris FC - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
14.09.25	Strasbourg - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Monaco - Strasbourg	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Brøndby - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Strasbourg - Nantes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWW
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0 ✺
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.01.25	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	1:1
29.09.24	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:0
12.01.24	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	1:1
25.11.23	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:1
12.03.23	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2
29.10.22	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	2:2
21.05.22	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0

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