Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Meinau (Strasbourg)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 6, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Strasbourg		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.7	4.2	Watch
	1.66	4	4.75
	1.82	3.7	4.25
	1.67	4.24	5.14
	1.57	4	5.5
	1.86	3.74	4.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.56)	3.9 ↓ (4.25)	4.68 ↓ (5.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Strasbourg
55.1%

Draw
24.5%

Le Havre
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

22.4%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

21.9%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Strasbourg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Strasbourg's form might have worsened.

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Strasbourg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.8%	18.2%	6.1%

Strasbourg - Le Havre Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Strasbourg will win (votes: 25 - 75.8%). Le Havre will win (votes: 2 - 6.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Strasbourg: 61.2% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Strasbourg (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Le Havre (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH -1.5 - Strasbourg (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Strasbourg (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Le Havre (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Penders M. (G) 24. Hogsberg L. 23. Sarr M. 6. Doukoure I. 3. Chilwell B. 17. Amougou M. 83. Luis R. 7. Moreira D. 80. Lemarechal F. 32. Barco V. 9. Panichelli J.	99. Diaw M. (G) 7. Nego L. 93. Sangante A. (C) 4. Lloris G. 18. Zouaoui Y. 94. Toure A. 13. Doucoure F. 8. Kechta Y. 14. Ndiaye R. 45. Soumare I. 70. Samatta A.
Substitutes
27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 33. Chizurum O. S. 44. Coulibaly S. 29. El Mourabet S. 20. Godo M. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 42. Ouattara A. 16. Paez K. 77. Sobol E.	23. Delaine T. 26. Ebonog S. 30. Khadra R. 10. Mambimbi F. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 21. Namli Y. 9. Pizarro D. 15. Seko A. 6. Youte Kinkoue E.
Coaches
Rosenior L.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Hogsberg L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lemarechal F. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
46', Chilwell B. ↓, Ouattara A. ↑,
46', Amougou M. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
69', Ndiaye R. ↓, Seko A. ↑,
69', Doucoure F. ↓, Khadra R. ↑,
70', Luis R. ↓, El Mourabet S. ↑,
75', Zouaoui Y. 🟨,
76', Toure A. ↓, Ebonog S. ↑,
82', Moreira D. ↓, Godo M. ↑,
90', Kechta Y. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 0, Panichelli J. (Pen),
90+3', Sangante A. ↓, Mambimbi F. ↑,
90+3', Kechta Y. ↓, Youte Kinkoue E. ↑,
90+4', Hogsberg L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Strasbourg won 3.

Strasbourg is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Le Havre is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Strasbourg is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Strasbourg: Coulibaly S. (Calf Injury) Doue G. (Injury) Emegha E. (Injury) Enciso J. (Knee Injury) Nanasi S. (Injury) Nzingoula R. (Red Card) Omobamidele A. (Injury) Sow S. (Knee Injury) Sylla A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Strasbourg: Penders M. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Strasbourg won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Strasbourg won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
31.08.25	Monaco - Strasbourg	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Brøndby - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Strasbourg - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Strasbourg - Brøndby	0:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.08.25	Metz - Strasbourg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWTW
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
31.08.25	Le Havre - Nice	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Le Havre - Lens	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Monaco - Le Havre	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Paris FC - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
17.05.25	Strasbourg - Le Havre	2:3
15.12.24	Le Havre - Strasbourg	0:3
04.05.24	Le Havre - Strasbourg	3:1
Coupe De France
07.02.24	Strasbourg - Le Havre	3:1
French Ligue 1
10.12.23	Strasbourg - Le Havre	2:1
French Ligue 2
28.04.17	Strasbourg - Le Havre	2:0
29.11.16	Le Havre - Strasbourg	0:1

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