Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Albania	SuperSport 5
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Monaco		Strasbourg

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.75	5.5	Watch
	1.57	4.4	5.25
	1.5	4.65	5.85
	1.53	4.75	5.86
	1.18	7.58	11.87	Watch
	1.57	4	5
	1.57	4.82	5.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.62)	4.99 ↑ (3.9)	6.46 ↑ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
65.4%

Draw
19.5%

Strasbourg
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.7%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

23.2%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monaco's performance.

Strasbourg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monaco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.2%	16.1%	9.7%

Monaco - Strasbourg Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 23 - 74.2%). Strasbourg will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 58.8% – 89.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Monaco (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Monaco (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Monaco (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Monaco (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 13 - 65%). Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (G) 4. Teze J. 3. Dier E. 13. Mawissa C. 12. Caio Henrique 11. Akliouche M. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 15. Camara L. 10. Golovin A. 14. Biereth M. 9. Balogun F.	39. Penders M. (G) 24. Hogsberg L. 23. Sarr M. (C) 6. Doukoure I. 42. Ouattara A. 17. Amougou M. 83. Luis R. 7. Moreira D. 80. Lemarechal F. 32. Barco V. 9. Panichelli J.
Substitutes
23. Bamba A. 29. Brunner P. 28. Coulibaly M. 19. Ilenikhena G. 5. Kehrer T. 16. Kohn P. (G) 18. Minamino T. 20. Ouattara K. 22. Salisu M.	27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 26. Bakwa D. 29. El Mourabet S. 1. Johnsson K. (G) 11. Nanasi S. 41. Nzingoula R. 8. Oyedele M. 16. Paez K. 77. Sobol E.
Coaches
Hutter A.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Akliouche M. ⚽,
8', Doukoure I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Doukoure I. ↓, Bakwa D. ↑,
46', Ouattara A. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Balogun F. ⚽, Camara L. (A),
71', Amougou M. ↓, El Mourabet S. ↑,
71', Moreira D. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Bakwa D. ⚽, Amo-Ameyaw S. (A),
76', 2 - 2, Panichelli J. (Pen),
78', Camara L. ↓, Bamba A. ↑,
79', Biereth M. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
79', Hradecky L. ↓, Kohn P. ↑,
85', Golovin A. ↓, Minamino T. ↑,
90+2', Lemarechal F. ↓, Nzingoula R. ↑,
90+6', 3 - 2, Minamino T. ⚽, Akliouche M. (A),
90+9', Nzingoula R. 🟥,
90+11', Balogun F. ↓, Coulibaly M. ↑,
90+11', Bamba A. 🟨,
90+11', Akliouche M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 4.

Monaco has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Strasbourg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Strasbourg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Monaco is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Monaco: Embolo B. (Inactive) Fati A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Pogba P. (Lacking Match Fitness) Salisu M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Strasbourg: Coulibaly S. (Calf Injury) Sow S. (Knee Injury) Sylla A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Strasbourg: Doue G. (Injury) Omobamidele A. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:23. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Monaco won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 2:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Lille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Monaco - Le Havre	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
08.08.25	Monaco - Inter Milan	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Ajax - Monaco	2:2 ✺
31.07.25	Monaco - Torino	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLTW
- RC Strasbourg
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Brøndby - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Strasbourg - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Strasbourg - Brøndby	0:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.08.25	Metz - Strasbourg	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Mainz - Strasbourg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.04.25	Monaco - Strasbourg	0:0
09.11.24	Strasbourg - Monaco	1:3
10.03.24	Strasbourg - Monaco	0:1
20.08.23	Monaco - Strasbourg	3:0
02.04.23	Monaco - Strasbourg	4:3
06.08.22	Strasbourg - Monaco	1:2
13.03.22	Strasbourg - Monaco	1:0

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