Match Info

K League 1 - Relegation - Final

Date: 8 December 2025, Monday

Location: Suwon Sports Complex (Suwon)


	Suwon		Bucheon

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	4.1	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4.05
	1.82	3.38	4.76
	1.9	3.48	4.01	Watch
	1.83	3.2	4.5
	1.85	3.32	4.43	Watch
	1.87	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.86)	3.33 ↑ (3.19)	4.26 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Suwon
50.3%

Draw
27.9%

Bucheon
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

28.9%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

31.2%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Suwon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Bucheon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Suwon than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bucheon than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Suwon - Bucheon Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Suwon will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Bucheon will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Suwon: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Suwon (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Bucheon (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hwang Jae-yun (G) 2. Lee Yong (C) 4. Kim Tae-Han 5. Lee Hyeon-yong 72. Lee S. 18. Han Chan-Hee 97. Luan Dias 14. Yoon Bit-Garam 94. Ahn Hyun-Beom 79. Kim Gyeong-Min 44. Willyan	1. Kim Hyung-Keun (G) 6. Jeong Ho-Jin 29. Baek Dong-Gyu 20. Hong Sung-Wook 27. Jang Si-Young 23. Takahashi K. 16. Park Hyun-Bin 17. Kim Kyu-Min 10. Rodrigo Bassani (C) 9. Montano J. 41. Galego
Substitutes
23. Ahn Jun-Su (G) 15. Andrigo 30. Choi Chi-Ung 6. Choi Kyu-Baek 22. Jang Young-Woo 7. Lee Jae-Won 9. Sabbag P.	14. Choi Jae-Young 22. Han Ji-Ho 21. Kim Hyeon-Yeob (G) 18. Lee Eui-Hyeong 5. Lee S. 11. Park Chang-Jun 7. Thiaguinho Santos
Coaches
Kim Eun-joong	Lee Young-Min

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', Park Hyun-Bin 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Rodrigo Bassani ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Hwang Jae-yun (Own goal),
31', Kim Tae-Han ↓, Choi Kyu-Baek ↑,
42', Jang Si-Young 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kim Gyeong-Min ↓, Sabbag P. ↑,
46', Han Chan-Hee ↓, Lee Jae-Won ↑,
46', 0 - 3, Galego ⚽, Rodrigo Bassani (A),
55', Ahn Hyun-Beom ↓, Andrigo ↑,
61', Willyan ↓, Choi Chi-Ung ↑,
67', Sabbag P. 🟨,
70', Montano J. ↓, Lee Eui-Hyeong ↑,
70', Galego ↓, Park Chang-Jun ↑,
78', Rodrigo Bassani ↓, Lee S. ↑,
78', Park Hyun-Bin ↓, Choi Jae-Young ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Choi Chi-Ung ⚽,
88', Kim Kyu-Min ↓, Han Ji-Ho ↑,
90+2', Han Ji-Ho 🟨,
90+2', Lee Hyeon-yong 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Suwon won 1.

Suwon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bucheon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Bucheon has had a series of home games.

In this match, Suwon is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Suwon won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 14:26. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Suwon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Suwon FC
South Korean K-League 1
05.12.25	Bucheon - Suwon	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Suwon - Gwangju	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Anyang - Suwon	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Ulsan HD - Suwon	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Suwon - Daegu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLT
- Bucheon FC 1995
South Korean K-League 1
05.12.25	Bucheon - Suwon	1:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 2
30.11.25	Bucheon - Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Bucheon - Hwaseong	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Gimpo - Bucheon	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Bucheon - Ansan Greeners	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
05.12.25	Bucheon - Suwon	1:0
South Korean Cup
27.04.22	Bucheon - Suwon	1:0
South Korean K-League 2
14.09.20	Suwon - Bucheon	1:0
09.08.20	Bucheon - Suwon	2:0
31.05.20	Suwon - Bucheon	1:2
09.11.19	Suwon - Bucheon	1:2
15.09.19	Bucheon - Suwon	1:1

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