Match Info

K League 1 - Round 26

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Suwon Sports Complex (Suwon)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
South-korea	Coupang Play, IB Sports
World	K League TV, Onefootball


	Suwon		Ulsan HD

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.7	2	Watch
	3.1	3.6	2.1
	3.3	3.55	1.95
	3.48	3.84	2.06
	3.47	3.77	1.94	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.32	3.7	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↓ (3.37)	3.65 ↑ (3.51)	2.03 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Suwon
28.3%

Draw
25.6%

Ulsan HD
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

26.5%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

24.7%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Suwon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Suwon than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Suwon - Ulsan HD Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Suwon will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Ulsan will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ulsan: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulsan (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Suwon (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Suwon (votes: 1 - 20%). Ulsan (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hwang Jae-yun (G) 2. Lee Yong (C) 6. Choi Kyu-Baek 4. Kim Tae-Han 21. Seo Jae-Min 7. Lee Jae-Won 18. Han Chan-Hee 15. Andrigo 97. Luan Dias 44. Willyan 9. Sabbag P.	21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 4. Seo Myung-Guan 66. Trojak M. 19. Kim Young-Gwon (C) 17. Ludwigson G. 6. Bojanic D. 7. Ko Seung-Beom 96. Choi Seok-Hyun 27. Lee Chung-Yong 9. Marcao 30. Yoon Jae-Seok
Substitutes
94. Ahn Hyun-Beom 23. Ahn Jun-Su (G) 22. Jang Young-Woo 19. Jung Seung-Bae 79. Kyeong-min K. 5. Lee Hyeon-yong 20. Lee Ji-Sol 72. Lee S. 8. Roh Kyung-Ho	2. Cho Hyun-Taek 97. Erick Farias 18. Heo Yool 5. Jung Woo-Young 13. Kang Sang-Woo 16. Lee H. 28. Lee Jae-Ik 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 23. Moon Jung-In (G)
Coaches
Kim Eun-joong	Shin Tae-Yong

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Sabbag P. ⚽, Willyan (A),
6', 1 - 1, Marcao ⚽, Lee Chung-Yong (A),
38', Andrigo 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Lee Chung-Yong ↓, Lee Jin-Hyun ↑,
46', Kim Young-Gwon ↓, Lee Jae-Ik ↑,
46', Choi Seok-Hyun ↓, Cho Hyun-Taek ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Willyan (Pen),
66', Andrigo ↓, Ahn Hyun-Beom ↑,
66', Seo Jae-Min ↓, Lee S. ↑,
70', Marcao ↓, Erick Farias ↑,
70', Yoon Jae-Seok ↓, Kang Sang-Woo ↑,
74', Willyan ↓, Kyeong-min K. ↑,
76', 3 - 1, Sabbag P. ⚽,
87', Luan Dias ↓, Roh Kyung-Ho ↑,
90+1', Hwang Jae-yun 🟨,
90+3', 4 - 1, Roh Kyung-Ho ⚽, Sabbag P. (A),
90+8', 4 - 2, Ludwigson G. ⚽, Lee Jin-Hyun (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Suwon won 2.

Suwon is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ulsan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ulsan will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Suwon won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 23:41. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Suwon won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:17. (average 0.9:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Ulsan HD - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.94%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Suwon FC
South Korean K-League 1
10.08.25	Daejeon Citizen - Suwon	3:2 ✺
02.08.25	Ulsan HD - Suwon	2:3 ✺
26.07.25	Suwon - Anyang	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Pohang Steelers - Suwon	1:5 ✺
18.07.25	Suwon - Gwangju	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 LWWWW
- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
09.08.25	Ulsan HD - Jeju	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Ulsan HD - Suwon	2:3 ✺
27.07.25	Gangwon - Ulsan HD	2:2 ✺
23.07.25	Ulsan HD - Daejeon Citizen	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	FC Seoul - Ulsan HD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
02.08.25	Ulsan HD - Suwon	2:3
16.03.25	Suwon - Ulsan HD	1:1
23.11.24	Ulsan HD - Suwon	4:2
18.08.24	Ulsan HD - Suwon	1:2
05.07.24	Suwon - Ulsan HD	1:1
06.04.24	Ulsan HD - Suwon	3:0
24.09.23	Suwon - Ulsan HD	2:3

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