Match Info

Challenge League - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Swieqi United		Birżebbuġa St. Peters

	1	X	2
	3.36	3.29	1.86
	3.34	3.56	1.95	Watch
	3.1	3	2.05
	3.45	3.38	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.72)	3.31 ↓ (3.45)	1.95 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swieqi United
27%

Draw
27.1%

Birżebbuġa St. Peters
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

26.3%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

26.1%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swieqi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Swieqi United's form might have worsened.

Birżebbuġa St. Peters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Birżebbuġa St. Peters's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swieqi United than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Swieqi United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birżebbuġa St. Peters than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birżebbuġa St. Peters, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Barbara Z. (Penalty Awarded),
28', 1 - 1, Zerafa D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Extra Time (0 - 0)
Penalties (6 - 7)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),
7, (Penalty Awarded),
7, (Penalty Awarded),
8, (Penalty Awarded),
8, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Swieqi United is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Birżebbuġa's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Swieqi United won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Swieqi United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Swieqi	2	1	1	0	6:5	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swieqi United
Maltese Challenge League
19.04.26	Swieqi United - Fgura United	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	St. Andrews - Swieqi United	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Swieqi United - Melita	Melita Awarded ✺
14.03.26	Balzan - Swieqi United	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TT?WT
- Birżebbuġa St. Peters
Maltese Challenge League
19.04.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Sirens	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	St. Andrews - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Pietà Hotspurs	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
08.03.26	Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2
28.09.25	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Swieqi United	0:1

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