Match Info

Challenge League - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Swieqi United		Melita

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.58	Watch
	2.24	3.43	2.68
	2.25	3.62	2.68	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.7
	2.26	3.42	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.33)	3.43 ↓ (3.6)	2.67 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swieqi United
40.1%

Draw
26.2%

Melita
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

25.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

24.9%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swieqi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Melita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swieqi United than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melita than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Swieqi United - Melita Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Swieqi United has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Melita has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Swieqi United won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Swieqi United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Swieqi	2	1	1	0	6:5	1	4
7	Melita	2	1	0	1	4:2	2	3

Last Results with these Odds

Melita - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.68%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swieqi United
Maltese Challenge League
14.03.26	Balzan - Swieqi United	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Swieqi United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Swieqi United - Sirens	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Swieqi United	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Swieqi United - Fgura United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WTWWW
- Melita FC
Maltese Challenge League
14.03.26	Melita - St. Andrews	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Melita	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Melita	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Melita - Sirens	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Melita	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
13.09.25	Melita - Swieqi United	1:2
07.01.24	Melita - Swieqi United	4:1
16.12.22	Swieqi United - Melita	2:0

Swieqi United - Melita: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide