Match Info

League Two - Round 21

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)


	Swindon Town		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	4.5
	1.65	4.15	4.25	Watch
	1.75	4.16	4.43
	1.68	4.1	4.35	Watch
	1.7	3.9	4.2
	1.67	4.01	4.51	Watch
	1.64	4.25	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.66)	4.08 ↑ (3.96)	4.39 ↑ (4.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
55.8%

Draw
22.9%

Crawley Town
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

23.3%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

22%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Swindon Town - Crawley Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Swindon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Swindon Town will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 3. Mabete F. 22. Knight-Lebel J. 6. Ball J. 19. Snowdon J. 7. Nichols T. (C) 44. Oldaker D. 18. Kilkenny G. 26. Munroe F. 28. Palmer O. 9. Glatzel P.	1. Davies H. (G) 5. Barker C. 3. Conroy D. (C) 28. Flint J. 19. Pereira D. 10. Brown R. 4. Bajrami G. 26. Williams J. 7. Forster H. 21. Loft R. 11. Roles J.
Substitutes
31. Bodin B. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 33. McGregor J. 11. Tabor J. 17. Tafazolli R. 12. Ward L. (G) 5. Wright W.	22. Adeyemo A. 24. Dixon K. 8. Holohan G. 9. Tshimanga K. 27. Watson L. 34. Wollacott J. (G)
Coaches
Holloway I.	Lindsey S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Forster H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Davies H. 🟨,
53', 1 - 0, Palmer O. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Forster H. ↓, Adeyemo A. ↑,
63', Bajrami G. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
64', Mabete F. ↓, Tafazolli R. ↑,
64', Oldaker D. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
79', Nichols T. ↓, Wright W. ↑,
82', Williams J. 🟨,
84', Roles J. ↓, Watson L. ↑,
84', Brown R. ↓, Holohan G. ↑,
85', Snowdon J. ↓, Tabor J. ↑,
90+8', Palmer O. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 21).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 2.

Swindon is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Crawley is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Crawley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Swindon is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Drinan A. (Red Card) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Swindon: Delaney R. (Inactive) Tafazolli R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Crawley: Anderson M. (Thigh Injury) Cashman D. (Inactive) Malone S. (Injury)

We predict that Swindon will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
13.12.25	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	0:3 ✺
09.12.25	Swindon Town - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Swindon Town - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Swindon Town - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
English League Two
29.11.25	Chesterfield - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WLWWW
- Crawley Town
English League Two
13.12.25	Crawley Town - Oldham Athletic	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Bromley - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Salford City - Crawley Town	4:3 ✺
22.11.25	Crawley Town - Accrington Stanley	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Gillingham - Crawley Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
13.08.24	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	4:2
English League Two
01.01.24	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	3:1
26.08.23	Swindon Town - Crawley Town	6:0
08.05.23	Swindon Town - Crawley Town	2:1
03.12.22	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	2:0
19.03.22	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	3:1
01.02.22	Swindon Town - Crawley Town	1:1

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