Match Info

FA Cup - 1/64-finals

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Swabey L. (Eng)


	Swindon Town		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.7	1.86
	3.59	3.99	1.97
	3.43	4.09	1.87	Watch
	3.4	3.6	1.91
	3.62	3.72	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.8	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↓ (3.73)	3.82 ↓ (4.07)	1.9 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
26.5%

Draw
24.4%

Bolton Wanderers
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

22.6%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

21.9%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bolton Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Swindon Town - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. 3. Mabete F. 22. Knight-Lebel J. 33. McGregor J. 18. Kilkenny G. 8. Clarke O. (C) 7. Nichols T. 19. Snowdon J. 23. Drinan A. 31. Bodin B.	27. Miller T. (G) 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 18. Toal E. (C) 5. Taylor R. 8. Sheehan J. 16. Morley A. 11. Gale T. 17. Randall J. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 10. Dalby S.
Substitutes
6. Ball J. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 45. Gray H. 44. Oldaker D. 28. Palmer O. 11. Tabor J. 12. Ward L. (G)	48. Burstow M. 29. Christie C. 25. Conway M. 22. Dempsey K. 21. Erhahon E. 24. Forss M. 14. Osei-Tutu J. 54. Ritchie T. 1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)
Coaches
Holloway I.	Schumacher S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Drinan A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Wright W. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
49', Clarke O. 🟨,
53', Dacres-Cogley J. 🟨,
55', 2 - 0, Snowdon J. ⚽, Kilkenny G. (A),
56', Dacres-Cogley J. ↓, Christie C. ↑,
56', Taylor R. ↓, Conway M. ↑,
63', Randall J. ↓, Burstow M. ↑,
63', Gale T. ↓, Forss M. ↑,
75', Sheehan J. ↓, Erhahon E. ↑,
76', 3 - 0, Drinan A. ⚽, Snowdon J. (A),
86', 4 - 0, Drinan A. ⚽,
88', Bodin B. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
88', Drinan A. ↓, Tabor J. ↑,

Preview

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Bolton is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Swindon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Swindon Town - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
English League Two
29.11.25	Chesterfield - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Swindon Town - Grimsby Town	2:2 ✺
15.11.25	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWTTW
- Bolton Wanderers
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Bradford City	3:0 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Bolton Wanderers - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Bolton Wanderers	2:6 ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
14.01.17	Bolton Wanderers - Swindon Town	1:2
08.10.16	Swindon Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:1

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