Match Info

League Two - Round 16

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Priestfield Stadium (Gillingham)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Gillingham		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.7	3.4	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.45	Watch
	2.04	3.72	3.62
	1.86	3.63	3.81	Watch
	1.99	3.48	3.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.88)	3.62 ↑ (3.57)	3.56 ↓ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gillingham
47.7%

Draw
25.9%

Crawley Town
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

26.1%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	7.1%	35.7%

Gillingham - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Gillingham will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Crawley will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gillingham: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Crawley (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Gillingham (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 50%). Crawley (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Turner J. (G) 2. Hutton R. 30. Gale S. 5. Smith A. 3. Clark M. 6. Coleman E. 14. McKenzie R. 27. Khumbeni N. 7. McCleary G. 23. Dack B. (C) 9. Andrews J.	34. Wollacott J. (G) 5. Barker C. 4. Bajrami G. 28. Flint J. 22. Adeyemo A. 26. Williams J. (C) 6. Anderson M. 7. Forster H. 10. Brown R. 27. Watson L. 14. Flower L.
Substitutes
15. Akomeah T. 13. Holtam T. (G) 11. Rowe A. 17. Smith J. 19. Vokes S. 10. Williams J. 18. Wyllie M.	1. Davies H. (G) 23. Kotey F. 20. Mukena J. 56. Robertson J. 11. Roles J. 9. Tshimanga K.
Coaches
Ainsworth G.	Lindsey S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Smith A. 🟨,
30', Brown R. 🟨,
36', Anderson M. ↓, Roles J. ↑,
45+3', 1 - 0, Dack B. ⚽, Clark M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 1 - 1, Bajrami G. ⚽, Forster H. (A),
55', 2 - 1, McKenzie R. (Pen),
73', Khumbeni N. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
78', Brown R. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
78', McCleary G. ↓, Rowe A. ↑,
78', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
78', Dack B. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
82', 2 - 2, Tshimanga K. ⚽, Flint J. (A),
83', Flower L. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 3.

Gillingham is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Crawley has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Gillingham is the team to beat.

There will not play in Gillingham: Masterson C. (Calf Injury) Morris G. (Injury) Nevitt E. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Gillingham: Little A. (Inactive) Williams E. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Crawley: Adeyemo A. (Injury) Cashman D. (Inactive) Malone S. (Injury) McKirdy H. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gillingham won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Crawley Town - the odds 3.84 are the expected chance of winning is 24.23%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gillingham FC
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Gillingham - Wycombe Wanderers	0:3 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Bristol Rovers - Gillingham	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Newport County - Gillingham	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Gillingham - Salford City	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Grimsby Town - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLL
- Crawley Town
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Crawley Town - Peterborough United	1:2 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Crawley Town - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Boreham Wood - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	4:0 ✺
18.10.25	Shrewsbury Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
26.12.23	Gillingham - Crawley Town	0:2
19.08.23	Crawley Town - Gillingham	0:1
04.02.23	Gillingham - Crawley Town	1:0
22.11.22	Crawley Town - Gillingham	0:0
English League Cup
10.08.21	Crawley Town - Gillingham	2:3 penalties
English EFL Trophy
08.09.20	Gillingham - Crawley Town	2:1
13.11.18	Gillingham - Crawley Town	2:1

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