Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 25

Date: 29 December 2023, Friday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Simpson S. (Eng)


	Swindon Town		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.6	3.4
	2.05	3.7	3.1
	2.05	3.75	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.8	3.35
	2.11	3.81	3.36
	2	3.6	3.25
	2.05	3.62	3.35	Watch
	2.07	3.6	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.84)	3.69 ↓ (3.72)	3.28 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
45.7%

Draw
25.6%

Forest Green Rovers
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

25.2%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

23.7%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Swindon Town's form might have worsened.

Forest Green Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Swindon Town - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Forest Green will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Ward L. (G) 22. Godwin-Malife U. 12. Brewitt T. 31. Minturn H. 2. Hutton R. 23. Kinsella L. 8. Khan S. 28. Shade T. 10. Kemp D. 7. Young J. 32. Austin C. (C)	1. Daniels L. (G) 3. Bernard D. 5. Inniss R. (C) 25. Dabo F. 17. Robson J. 6. Jenks T. 8. McCann C. 27. Bunker H. 7. McAllister K. 9. Stevens M. 39. Morton C.
Substitutes
16. Cain J. 26. Dworzak A. 47. Evans R. (G) 14. Genesini B. 36. Hart S. 6. McEachran G. 41. Obodo M.	12. Bendle A. 4. Johnson D. 2. Lavinier M. 19. Robertson S. 20. Searle J. (G) 10. Taylor M. 22. Welch R.
Coaches
Flynn M.	Deeney T.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 15 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Swindon won 4.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Forest Green could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Forest Green have a series of guest games.

Swindon will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Swindon won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Swindon won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
26.12.23	Swindon Town - Wrexham	0:1 ✺
23.12.23	Tranmere Rovers - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
16.12.23	Swindon Town - Barrow	0:3 ✺
09.12.23	AFC Wimbledon - Swindon Town	4:0 ✺
28.11.23	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- Forest Green Rovers
English League Two
26.12.23	Newport County - Forest Green Rovers	4:2 ✺
22.12.23	Forest Green Rovers - Gillingham	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
19.12.23	Blackpool - Forest Green Rovers	3:0 ✺
English League Two
16.12.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
12.12.23	Scarborough Athletic - Forest Green Rovers	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.08.23	Forest Green Rovers - Swindon Town	1:2
26.04.22	Swindon Town - Forest Green Rovers	2:1
09.10.21	Forest Green Rovers - Swindon Town	0:2
English EFL Trophy
10.11.20	Forest Green Rovers - Swindon Town	0:1
English League Two
07.03.20	Swindon Town - Forest Green Rovers	0:2
21.12.19	Forest Green Rovers - Swindon Town	2:2
12.02.19	Swindon Town - Forest Green Rovers	2:0

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