Match Info

A-League - Round 13

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Kelly S. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Thailand	SPOTV, True ID, True Premier Football 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV


	Sydney		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5	Watch
	1.55	4.45	4.95	Watch
	1.58	4.72	4.95	Watch
	1.57	4.2	4.8
	1.6	4.6	5.12	Watch
	1.58	4.5	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.42)	4.5 ↓ (4.55)	4.93 ↓ (6.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sydney
60%

Draw
20.9%

Wellington Phoenix
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

20.3%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

19.6%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sydney has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sydney, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Sydney - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Sydney will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Wellington will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sydney: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Sydney (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sydney will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sydney (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Devenish-Meares H. (G) 23. Grant R. (C) 32. Tisserand M. 5. Grant A. 17. Garuccio B. 20. Quintal T. 36. Youlley R. 24. Okon-Engstler P. 7. Quispe Cordova P. A. 9. Campuzano V. 13. Wood P.	40. McCarron E. (G) 6. Payne T. 27. Sheridan M. 4. James M. 15. Hughes I. 11. Armiento C. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 25. Nagasawa K. 7. Eze I. 3. Piper C.
Substitutes
44. Akon A. 26. Alfaro N. 4. Courtney-Perkins J. 33. France M. 6. Hollman C. 41. Popovic A. 30. Zaverdinos A. (G)	29. Brooke-Smith L. 5. Conchie F. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 18. Kelly-Heald L. 10. Mileusnic N. 8. Retre P. 28. Tuiloma B.
Coaches
Talay U.	Italiano G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Quintal T. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Armiento C. ⚽,
43', Youlley R. 🟥,
45+1', Rufer A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Quintal T. ↓, Hollman C. ↑,
46', Tisserand M. ↓, Popovic A. ↑,
55', Wood P. ↓, Akon A. ↑,
59', Eze I. ↓, Retre P. ↑,
60', Akon A. 🟨,
63', 0 - 2, Hughes I. ⚽, Rufer A. (A),
66', Najjarine R. ↓, Conchie F. ↑,
76', Payne T. ↓, Kelly-Heald L. ↑,
76', Armiento C. ↓, Tuiloma B. ↑,
76', Piper C. ↓, Mileusnic N. ↑,
79', Grant A. ↓, Courtney-Perkins J. ↑,
79', Okon-Engstler P. ↓, France M. ↑,
86', Popovic A. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 1.

Sydney is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wellington has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sydney may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sydney has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sydney is the team to beat.

There will not play in Sydney: Hoefsloot G. (Inactive) Lolley J. (Inactive) Macallister M. (International duty)

There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D. (Inactive) Ishige H. (Injury) Oluwayemi J. (Injury) Supyk L. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:12. (average 2.1:1.2).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Sydney FC: 12.8% Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Sydney FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney FC
Australian A-League
10.01.26	Macarthur FC - Sydney	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Melbourne City - Sydney	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Sydney	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Perth Glory - Sydney	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Central Coast Mariners - Sydney	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTLWW
- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
10.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	0:3 ✺
29.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Central Coast Mariners	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
16.03.25	Sydney - Wellington Phoenix	1:1
15.01.25	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney	0:0
16.03.24	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney	2:1
29.12.23	Sydney - Wellington Phoenix	3:1
11.03.23	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney	1:0
07.01.23	Sydney - Wellington Phoenix	0:1
19.02.22	Wellington Phoenix - Sydney	1:1

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