Match Info

A-League - Round 12

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV 2 Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV 2, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
Philippines	SPOTV 2
Singapore	SPOTV 2
Thailand	SPOTV 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV 2


	Wellington Phoenix		Adelaide United

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.9	2.3	Watch
	2.62	3.7	2.38	Watch
	2.55	3.86	2.49	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.38
	2.78	4.02	2.37	Watch
	2.66	3.75	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.86)	3.81 ↑ (3.55)	2.38 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix
35.9%

Draw
24.7%

Adelaide United
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

26.2%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

25.1%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.9%	9.4%	18.7%

Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 23 - 71.9%). Adelaide will win (votes: 6 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wellington: 56.3% – 87.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Wellington (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Wellington Phoenix will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 12 - 80%). Adelaide (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. McCarron E. (G) 27. Sheridan M. 4. James M. 15. Hughes I. 6. Payne T. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 25. Nagasawa K. 18. Kelly-Heald L. 7. Eze I. 3. Piper C.	22. Smits J. (G) 12. Yull J. 14. Barnett J. 4. Kikianis P. 7. Kitto R. 23. Duzel L. 44. White R. 36. Madanha P. 10. Muniz J. 11. Goodwin C. (C) 87. Anselmo
Substitutes
29. Brooke-Smith L. 37. Cassidy A. 60. Chalabi J. (G) 5. Conchie F. 24. Loke T. 10. Mileusnic N. 8. Retre P.	42. Ayoubi A. 40. Cox E. (G) 65. Garuccio J. 18. Najdovski J. 52. Phillis S. 62. Talladira F. 74. Tatu A.
Coaches
Italiano G.	Andrioli A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, White R. ⚽, Madanha P. (A),
28', Piper C. 🟨,
30', Kelly-Heald L. 🟨,
40', Rufer A. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Duzel L. ⚽, Goodwin C. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kelly-Heald L. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
55', Goodwin C. 🟨,
57', 1 - 2, Hughes I. ⚽, Najjarine R. (A),
66', 2 - 2, Piper C. ⚽, Payne T. (A),
66', Payne T. ↓, Retre P. ↑,
72', Anselmo 🟨,
79', Anselmo ↓, Ayoubi A. ↑,
79', Muniz J. ↓, Najdovski J. ↑,
82', Eze I. ↓, Mileusnic N. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Wellington: Armiento C. (Red Card) Edwards D. (Inactive) Ishige H. (Injury) Mileusnic N. (Injury) Oluwayemi J. (Injury) Payne T. (Inactive) Supyk L. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Adelaide: Pierias D. (Inactive) Vriends B. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:37. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.5:1.4).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Wellington Phoenix - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.46%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	0:3 ✺
29.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Central Coast Mariners	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
05.12.25	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWLL
- Adelaide United
Australian A-League
04.01.26	Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners	0:4 ✺
27.12.25	Adelaide United - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:2 ✺
20.12.25	Perth Glory - Adelaide United	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Adelaide United - Brisbane Roar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
28.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	2:1
18.04.25	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	3:2
10.01.25	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	1:2
02.03.24	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	3:2
04.01.24	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	2:2
05.05.23	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	2:0
17.03.23	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	5:1

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