Match Info

A-League - Round 8

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: King A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Wellington Phoenix		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
	2.57	4	2.25	Watch
	2.68	3.7	2.32	Watch
	2.76	4.02	2.4
	2.66	4.02	2.34	Watch
	2.63	3.7	2.3
	2.74	3.87	2.42	Watch
	2.66	3.8	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.37)	3.87 ↑ (3.7)	2.34 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington Phoenix
35.3%

Draw
24.3%

Newcastle Jets
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

25%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

25%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Newcastle Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Newcastle will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wellington: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 3 - 60%). Newcastle (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Newcastle (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 3 - 50%). Newcastle (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 24. Loke T. 27. Sheridan M. 39. Smith J. 18. Kelly-Heald L. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 25. Nagasawa K. 3. Piper C. 7. Eze I. 11. Armiento C.	1. Delianov J. (G) 22. Bertolissio J. 42. Cooper M. 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 17. Grozos K. (C) 13. Taylor C. 14. Burgess M. 19. Badolato A. 28. Dobson W. 9. Rose L.
Substitutes
29. Brooke-Smith L. 46. Candy L. 5. Conchie F. 12. Edwards D. 40. McCarron E. (G) 48. Munro M. 17. Sloane-Rodrigues G.	7. Adams E. 40. Baylis J. (G) 8. Bayliss L. 37. Cockle O. 11. Gibson B. 18. Mizunuma K. 5. Shaughnessy J.
Coaches
Italiano G.	Milligan M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Burgess M. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
50', 0 - 1, Adams E. ⚽, Badolato A. (A),
55', 0 - 2, Rose L. ⚽, Grozos K. (A),
57', 0 - 3, Taylor C. ⚽, Wilmering D. (A),
58', Loke T. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
59', Najjarine R. ↓, Conchie F. ↑,
69', 1 - 3, Eze I. ⚽, Conchie F. (A),
71', Taylor C. ↓, Mizunuma K. ↑,
71', Dobson W. ↓, Bayliss L. ↑,
84', Cooper M. ↓, Shaughnessy J. ↑,
84', Rose L. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
84', Armiento C. ↓, Sloane-Rodrigues G. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Wellington: Ishige H. (Injury) James M. (Red Card) Mileusnic N. (Injury) Payne T. (Inactive) Retre P. (Abdominal strain) Supyk L. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Bracco C. (Inactive) Fryer O. (Knee Injury) James N. (Knee Injury) Mizunuma K. (Hamstring Injury) Nassiep A. (Inactive) Nkomo R. (Inactive) Nunes A. (Inactive) Van Dorssen B. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:36. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
05.12.25	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	3:1 ✺
28.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Central Coast Mariners - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLT
- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
06.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Auckland FC - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Newcastle Jets - Perth Glory	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Brisbane Roar - Newcastle Jets	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Newcastle Jets - Sydney	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
06.04.25	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:2
27.12.24	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	2:1
19.04.24	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:1
27.01.24	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:2
09.12.23	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	0:3
03.03.23	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	2:1
22.10.22	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	3:1

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