Match Info

Date: 1 August 2021, Sunday


	Tacoma Defiance		New Mexico United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	3.4	2.1
	3.1	3.5	2
	3.25	3.3	2.01
	3.43	3.62	2.09
	3.38	3.38	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.3)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)	2.04 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
28.5%

Draw
26.7%

New Mexico United
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.4%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

19.2%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tacoma Defiance's form might have worsened.

New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting New Mexico United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (+25.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tacoma Defiance, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-19.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for New Mexico United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tacoma Defiance - New Mexico United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 11 and 6).

Tacoma has the most likely position - 5 (23.34%), has project points - 39, has currently - 16, has a chance of playoffs (34%), has a small chance of qtrs (12%), has a very small chance of semis (4%), has a very small chance of final (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Two teams are playing changeable.

New Mexico could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

New Mexico will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Tacoma won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Tacoma won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
USL Championship
29.07.21	Tacoma Defiance - San Diego Loyal	2:1 ✺
11.07.21	LA Galaxy II - Tacoma Defiance	1:1 ✺
06.07.21	Orange County SC - Tacoma Defiance	0:0 ✺
03.07.21	Las Vegas Lights - Tacoma Defiance	1:0 ✺
27.06.21	Tacoma Defiance - LA Galaxy II	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WTTLW
- New Mexico United
USL Championship
24.07.21	New Mexico United - El Paso Locomotive	0:0 ✺
21.07.21	San Antonio - New Mexico United	3:0 ✺
12.07.21	New Mexico United - Charleston Battery	2:1 ✺
09.07.21	New Mexico United - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3:1 ✺
03.07.21	El Paso Locomotive - New Mexico United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
16.10.19	New Mexico United - Tacoma Defiance	1:1
29.03.19	Tacoma Defiance - New Mexico United	1:2

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