Match Info

MLS Next Pro

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Starfire Sports (Tukwila, WA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Next Pro
World	Onefootball


	Tacoma Defiance		Real Monarchs

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	3.60	2.70
	2.15	3.65	2.88
	2.07	3.95	2.81
	2.2	3.58	2.93	Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.75
	2.19	3.6	2.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.43)	3.61 ↑ (3.55)	2.8 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tacoma Defiance
42.4%

Draw
25.1%

Real Monarchs
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

25.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

25.3%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tacoma Defiance's performance.

Real Monarchs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Monarchs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tacoma Defiance that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Monarchs than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Monarchs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Tacoma Defiance - Real Monarchs Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tacoma will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Real Monarchs will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Shour M. (G) 47. Alvarez D. 53. Sandnes G. 58. Winslow J. 84. Gaffney C. 40. O'Neill M. (C) 32. Gnaulati X. 48. Phoenix C. 30. Carli E. 42. Jauregui R. 81. Bronnik M.	99. Alphin R. (G) 47. Ewald F. 3. Henry K. 80. Wentzel M. 77. Mesalles R. (C) 88. Ream L. 38. Riquelme A. 76. O'Gara L. 40. Marquez O. 30. Anderson O. 70. Lineker Rodrigues
Substitutes
70. Brito K. 80. Brown D. 78. Dale J. 62. Emert M. 79. Gonzalez L. 43. Hassan O. 99. Lucero L. 34. Robles D. 65. Smith B.	61. Amparo I. 55. Calderon G. 90. Karousis K. (G) 34. Moisa L. 79. Ottley J. 33. Parker V. 41. Villa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Henry K. 🟨,
38', Marquez O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marquez O. ↓, Amparo I. ↑,
48', Phoenix C. 🟨,
56', 1 - 0, Bronnik M. ⚽, O'Neill M. (A),
58', Wentzel M. ↓, Calderon G. ↑,
62', Phoenix C. ↓, Emert M. ↑,
62', Jauregui R. ↓, Smith B. ↑,
64', Ream L. ↓, Villa G. ↑,
64', Henry K. ↓, Parker V. ↑,
71', Gnaulati X. ↓, Lucero L. ↑,
81', Anderson O. ↓, Ottley J. ↑,
83', Smith B. 🟨,
87', Bronnik M. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
87', Carli E. ↓, Robles D. ↑,
90+2', Gonzalez L. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Real Monarchs may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 31:38. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 2.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
17.06.26	Tacoma Defiance - Houston Dynamo 2	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Portland Timbers 2 - Tacoma Defiance	1:0 ✺
22.05.26	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Vancouver Whitecaps 2 - Tacoma Defiance	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Austin II - Tacoma Defiance	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLWWL
- Real Monarchs SLC
MLS Next Pro
13.06.26	Real Monarchs - Portland Timbers 2	4:1 ✺
07.06.26	San Jose Earthquakes 2 - Real Monarchs	3:0 ✺
29.05.26	Real Monarchs - Sporting Kansas City II	1:3 ✺
24.05.26	Vancouver Whitecaps 2 - Real Monarchs	1:3 ✺
20.05.26	Real Monarchs - Colorado Rapids 2	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS Next Pro
31.08.25	Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance	3:0
17.07.25	Tacoma Defiance - Real Monarchs	2:3 penalties
11.06.25	Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance	2:1
13.09.24	Tacoma Defiance - Real Monarchs	1:2 penalties
11.08.24	Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance	2:1
26.06.24	Tacoma Defiance - Real Monarchs	3:0
15.09.23	Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance	0:3

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