Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, FL)


	Tampa Bay Rowdies		Orlando City

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.7	1.75	Watch
	3.7	3.5	1.78	Watch
	4.1	3.65	1.78
	4.35	3.65	1.83
	4.3	3.55	1.82	Watch
	3.9	3.25	1.83
	4.48	3.68	1.74	Watch
	4	3.6	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↑ (3.3)	3.57 ↑ (3.35)	1.79 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Rowdies
22.3%

Draw
26%

Orlando City
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

27.1%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

27.1%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Rowdies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tampa Bay Rowdies's form might have worsened.

Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orlando City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tampa Bay Rowdies, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orlando City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Tampa Bay Rowdies - Orlando City Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Orlando City will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campisi N. (G) 7. Niyongabire P. 2. Castellanos R. 3. Lasso F. 33. Guillen A. (C) 8. Bassett O. 14. Vancaeyezeele T. 17. Crisostomo D. 10. Fernandes L. 9. Arteaga M. 27. Wyke L.	12. Otero J. (G) 30. Freeman A. 15. Schlegel R. (C) 17. Thorhallsson D. 11. Rodriguez N. 65. Caraballo G. 5. Araujo C. 24. Smith K. 3. Rafael Santos 10. Ojeda M. 7. Enrique R.
Substitutes
41. Bandre E. (G) 11. Bodily B. 34. De Jesus M. 21. Mustali E. 28. Pacius W. 36. Rodriguez A. 18. Worth N.	77. Angulo I. 4. Brekalo D. 1. Gallese P. (G) 25. Guske C. 13. McGuire D. 9. Muriel L. 96. Taifi Z.
Coaches
Coleman S.	Pareja O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
13', Crisostomo D. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Caraballo G. ⚽, Ojeda M. (A),
36', 0 - 2, Caraballo G. ⚽, Thorhallsson D. (A),
42', 0 - 3, Enrique R. ⚽, Rafael Santos (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Crisostomo D. ↓, Worth N. ↑,
46', Arteaga M. ↓, Pacius W. ↑,
46', Freeman A. ↓, Guske C. ↑,
46', Ojeda M. ↓, McGuire D. ↑,
55', Caraballo G. 🟨,
59', 0 - 4, McGuire D. ⚽, Rodriguez N. (A),
62', Niyongabire P. ↓, Mustali E. ↑,
62', Castellanos R. ↓, Bodily B. ↑,
62', Araujo C. ↓, Taifi Z. ↑,
62', Schlegel R. ↓, Brekalo D. ↑,
70', Fernandes L. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
83', Wyke L. 🟨,
84', Rodriguez N. ↓, Angulo I. ↑,
90', 0 - 5, Thorhallsson D. ⚽, Angulo I. (A),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.

In this match, Orlando City is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 1.3:3).

Including home match between the teams, Tampa Bay won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
03.05.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami	3:3 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Naples - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Loudoun United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTLWL
- Orlando City
MLS
03.05.25	Chicago Fire - Orlando City	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Orlando City - Atlanta United	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	CF Montréal - Orlando City	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Orlando City - New York Red Bulls	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Philadelphia Union - Orlando City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

US Open Cup
20.04.22	Orlando City - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:1
Club Friendly
06.07.14	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Orlando City	2:3
US Open Cup
28.05.14	Orlando City - Tampa Bay Rowdies	4:1

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