Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, FL)

Referee: Hassan M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tampa Bay Rowdies		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	4.80	6.25
	1.34	4.8	6.6
	1.35	5.6	7.54
	1.37	5.17	6.92	Watch
	1.31	5.45	7.35
	1.32	4.95	6.85	Watch
	1.34	4.9	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.37)	5.1 ↑ (4.95)	6.87 ↓ (6.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Rowdies
68.6%

Draw
18%

Birmingham Legion
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

18.8%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

18%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Rowdies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

The chances for Birmingham Legion have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Waite J. (G) 26. Acoff D. 21. Bartlow E. 62. Dossantos N. 20. Ostrem C. 23. Schneider M. 4. Hilton L. (C) 7. Conway E. 9. Myers M. 10. Cicerone R. 19. Locadia J.	1. Koleilat J. (G) 21. Tregarthen S. 8. Cole K. 20. Paterson AJ 77. Brown N. 18. Antwi S. 6. McIllhatton S. 81. Ngoma S. 16. Vassell P. 10. Shashoua S. (C) 9. Damus R.
Substitutes
30. Cruz S. 14. Henderlong K. 16. Micaletto M. 24. Pack A. (G) 8. Pedro Becker 36. Rodriguez A. 3. Schaefer B. 27. Wyke L.	26. Daley A. 19. Diarbian G. 32. Diop H. 11. McCartney D. 12. McMullen T. (G) 15. Pasher T. 17. Williams R.
Coaches
Casciato D.	Heaps J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Paterson AJ (Own goal),
39', 2 - 0, Myers M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Paterson AJ ↓, Diop H. ↑,
46', Ngoma S. ↓, Diarbian G. ↑,
46', McIllhatton S. ↓, Pasher T. ↑,
46', Hilton L. ↓, Cruz S. ↑,
54', Heaps J. 🟥,
56', 3 - 0, Myers M. ⚽, Schneider M. (A),
60', 4 - 0, Myers M. ⚽,
61', Cicerone R. ↓, Micaletto M. ↑,
61', Schneider M. ↓, Wyke L. ↑,
61', Conway E. ↓, Schaefer B. ↑,
61', Damus R. ↓, Williams R. ↑,
64', Ostrem C. 🟨,
68', Williams R. 🟨,
72', Shashoua S. 🟨,
73', Tregarthen S. ↓, McCartney D. ↑,
74', Wyke L. 🟨,
77', Myers M. ↓, Pedro Becker ↑,

Preview

Tampa Bay is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs 1/8~finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.

In recent outings, Tampa Bay has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Birmingham has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Tampa Bay could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Tampa Bay holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:18 (averaging 1.3:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tampa Bay against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 10:13 goals (averaging 1.4:1.9 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
12.09.26	Hartford Athletic - Tampa Bay Rowdies	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Brooklyn	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Detroit City - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Rhode Island	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTLW
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
16.09.26	Birmingham Legion - New Mexico United	4:4 ✺
12.09.26	Birmingham Legion - Charleston Battery	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Hartford Athletic - Birmingham Legion	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Sporting Jacksonville	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
07.03.26	Birmingham Legion - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1
17.09.25	Birmingham Legion - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:4
03.05.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	2:2
11.09.24	Birmingham Legion - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:0
11.05.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	0:1
US Open Cup
08.05.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	6:4 ET
USL Championship
21.10.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	0:3

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