Match Info

FA Trophy - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Lamb Ground (Tamworth)


	Tamworth		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	2
	2.36	2.91	3.24	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2
	3.26	3.44	1.99
	3.33	3.33	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↓ (3.79)	3.3 ↓ (3.67)	2.25 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tamworth
30.2%

Draw
28.3%

Rochdale
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

24.7%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

24.4%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tamworth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tamworth's performance.

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rochdale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tamworth than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tamworth that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rochdale could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tamworth - Rochdale Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tamworth (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tamworth (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Smith T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
72', 1 - 1, Acquaye B. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Barlow A. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Mols S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, McBride C. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Lissimore K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Burger J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Lynch O. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Pettit C. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ponticelli J. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Mancini A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Donkor K. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Tutonda D. (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),
7, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Recent performances by Tamworth have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rochdale is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tamworth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tamworth has had a series of home games.

In this match, Rochdale is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tamworth won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tamworth won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Rochdale - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 51.44%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tamworth
English National League
03.01.26	Tamworth - Gateshead	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Tamworth - Halifax Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Solihull Moors - Tamworth	7:1 ✺
20.12.25	Tamworth - Southend United	2:1 ✺
English National League Cup
16.12.25	Tamworth - Manchester United U21	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLLWW
- Rochdale AFC
English National League
30.12.25	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	Morecambe - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
19.12.25	Altrincham - Rochdale	0:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Leamington - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
English National League
29.11.25	Rochdale - Eastleigh	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
22.11.25	Tamworth - Rochdale	1:2
25.02.25	Tamworth - Rochdale	1:1
17.12.24	Rochdale - Tamworth	3:0

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