Match Info

National League - Round 24

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Morecambe		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.5	1.38
	6.5	4.75	1.4
	6.26	4.75	1.43	Watch
	6	4.5	1.4
	6.71	4.64	1.42
	6.5	5	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.41 ↑ (5.65)	4.69 ↑ (4.51)	1.41 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
14.4%

Draw
19.7%

Rochdale
65.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

20.5%

63%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

19.7%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Morecambe - Rochdale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rochdale (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rochdale will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Blackman J. (G) 5. Kacurri M. 28. Sutton E. 14. Sesay A. (C) 6. Francillette L. 36. Nolan J. 32. Thomas G. 8. Azeez M. 33. Raikhy A. 18. Tollitt B. 12. Aarons R.	25. Broome N. (G) 2. Gordon K. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. (C) 37. Galvin R. 14. Adebayo-Rowling T. 4. East R. 8. Gilmour H. 17. Pritchard J. 35. Waller C. 21. McBride C. 40. Henderson I.
Substitutes
3. Conte R. 29. Dixon-Bonner E. 17. Lewis P. 1. Mair A. (G) 11. Muskwe A. 2. Payne L. 20. Sangare M.	19. Burger J. 11. Mancini A. 22. Moss D. 16. Pettit C. 10. Rodney D. 38. Smith T. 3. Tutonda D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Pritchard J. 🟨,
41', Pritchard J. (Penalty Awarded),
45', 0 - 1, Henderson I. ⚽, Broome N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Pritchard J. ↓, Burger J. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Nolan J. ⚽,
62', Henderson I. ↓, Smith T. ↑,
63', Raikhy A. ↓, Lewis P. ↑,
71', Lewis P. 🟨,
71', McBride C. ↓, Rodney D. ↑,
74', Aarons R. ↓, Muskwe A. ↑,
74', Sesay A. ↓, Sangare M. ↑,
78', Ebanks-Landell E. 🟨,
80', 1 - 2, Gilmour H. ⚽,
85', Francillette L. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Morecambe won 1.

Morecambe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rochdale is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Rochdale is the clear favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Morecambe won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Morecambe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English National League
21.12.25	Brackley Town - Morecambe	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Gateshead - Morecambe	0:3 ✺
English National League
06.12.25	Morecambe - Boston United	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Braintree Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Morecambe - Yeovil Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWLLT
- Rochdale AFC
English National League
19.12.25	Altrincham - Rochdale	0:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Leamington - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
English National League
29.11.25	Rochdale - Eastleigh	2:0 ✺
English National League Cup
25.11.25	Rochdale - Everton U21	1:0 ✺
English National League
22.11.25	Tamworth - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
08.09.20	Morecambe - Rochdale	1:2
Club Friendly
29.07.17	Morecambe - Rochdale	0:1
English EFL Trophy
10.11.15	Rochdale - Morecambe	0:1
English League Two
15.02.14	Rochdale - Morecambe	2:1
16.11.13	Morecambe - Rochdale	1:2
02.03.13	Morecambe - Rochdale	3:0
English FA Cup
13.11.12	Rochdale - Morecambe	0:1

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