The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tapatío 31.9%
Draw 25.1%
Atlético La Paz 43%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
41.5%
25%
33.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.4%
26.2%
32%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tapatío's form might have worsened.
Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético La Paz's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+11.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tapatío, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-11%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético La Paz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
0%
66.7%
Tapatío - Atlético La Paz Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Tapatío will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Atlético La Paz will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
BTTS - yes (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Liceaga J. (G) 43. Parra R. 53. Soldati C. 55. Esparza S. 42. Delgadillo D. 63. Cendejas M. 47. Garcia G. 44. Zamora S. (C) 58. Uribe J. 69. Villaseca D. 49. Moragrega V.
33. Alcala G. (G) 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 21. Robles C. 16. Del Aguila Y. 77. Alonzo J. 20. Garcia M. 5. Torres E. 25. Illescas F. 30. Robles A. 10. Barragan M. (C) 19. Jaimes U.
Substitutes
196. Covarrubias D. 255. Gutierrez G. 48. Jimenez L. 64. Latorre D. 60. Ledesma L. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 50. Medina C. 54. Nuno R. 70. Torres L. 195. Zamarripa D.
13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 22. Daccarett J. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 18. Larios I. 12. Millan O. 11. Renteria R. 15. Torres H.
Coaches
Melendez J.
Castillo H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Robles A. ⚽, Zurita Jimenez U. (A),
5', 1 - 1, Villaseca D. ⚽, Garcia G. (A),
11', 1 - 2, Illescas F. ⚽, Robles C. (A),
15', Esparza S. 🟥,
32', Barragan M. 🟨,
43', Robles C. 🟨,
45+5', 2 - 2, Moragrega V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', 2 - 3, Barragan M. ⚽, Jaimes U. (A),
57', Zurita Jimenez U. 🟨,
60', 2 - 4, Jaimes U. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
67', Garcia M. ↓, Millan O. ↑,
67', Delgadillo D. ↓, Covarrubias D. ↑,
67', Garcia G. ↓, Gutierrez G. ↑,
67', Robles A. ↓, Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↑,
67', Barragan M. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
68', Villaseca D. 🟨,
76', Alonzo J. ↓, Larios I. ↑,
76', Uribe J. ↓, Nuno R. ↑,
76', Moragrega V. ↓, Torres L. ↑,
80', Villaseca D. ↓, Ledesma L. ↑,
82', Illescas F. 🟨,
87', Parra R. 🟨,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 10th and 3rd in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 2.
Recent results have been tough for Tapatío (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Atlético La Paz is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Tapatío has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:13 (averaging 1.5:1.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tapatío against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:2 goals (averaging 1.3:0.5 per game).
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
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Liceaga J. (G) 
Villaseca D. 
Medina C. 
Ferrer J. 
Castillo H. 
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