Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	22:00	Disney+
Brazil	22:00	Disney+
Chile	22:00	Disney+
Colombia	20:00	Disney+
Mexico	19:00	Disney+, ESPN
Peru	20:00	Disney+
Uruguay	22:00	Disney+
Venezuela	21:00	Disney+


	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.10	3.40	1.98
	2.95	3.50	2.06	Watch
	3.72	3.73	1.99
	3.28	3.66	2.06	Watch
	3.75	3.60	1.92
	3.56	3.71	1.93	Watch
	3.25	3.55	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (3.14)	3.59 ↓ (3.74)	1.99 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
27.5%

Draw
25.8%

Atlético La Paz
46.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.7%

25%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

24.8%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Atlético La Paz will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 15. Villa P. 12. Reyes J. 4. Alvarez K. (C) 23. Hernandez A. 28. Jeffus L. 22. Jaimes Rodriguez T. 177. Bustos J. 33. Tecpanecatl A. 7. Ballesteros O. 11. Andrey Marcos	33. Alcala G. (G) 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 21. Robles C. 16. Del Aguila Y. 77. Alonzo J. 20. Garcia M. 5. Torres E. 25. Illescas F. 30. Robles A. 10. Barragan M. (C) 19. Jaimes U.
Substitutes
20. Ayala D. 19. Fadika B. 16. Gallinar S. 18. Gonzalez J. 37. Gutierrez L. 3. Justo A. 1. Rodas C. (G) 27. Sanchez E. 35. Vizarretea S.	22. Daccarett J. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 18. Larios I. 12. Millan O. 11. Renteria R. 15. Torres H. 2. Vazquez S.
Coaches
Bolanos Fabian G. R.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Robles A. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
33', Tecpanecatl A. 🟨,
35', Zurita Jimenez U. 🟨,
37', Andrey Marcos 🟨,
44', Torres E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Jaimes Rodriguez T. ↓, Fadika B. ↑,
46', Jeffus L. ↓, Ayala D. ↑,
54', Alvarez K. 🟨,
61', Illescas F. ↓, Millan O. ↑,
72', Robles C. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
73', Jaimes U. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
73', Paz Vasquez O. ↓, Rodas C. ↑,
74', Bustos J. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
79', 0 - 2, Zurita Jimenez U. ⚽, Millan O. (A),
80', Ballesteros O. ↓, Vizarretea S. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Fadika B. (Penalty Awarded),
84', 1 - 3, Ferrer J. ⚽, Hernandez D. (A),
85', Barragan M. ↓, Larios I. ↑,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 13th and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 0.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Atlético La Paz is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Atlético La Paz is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:20 (averaging 1.2:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alebrijes de Oaxaca against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:7 goals (averaging 1.5:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atletico La Paz ✔	14	8	3	3	33:18	15	27
9	Alebrijes Oaxaca	14	6	1	7	14:25	-11	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.26	Cancún - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
10.09.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:1 ✺
27.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Jaiba Brava - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLTL
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
18.09.26	Atlético La Paz - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz	2:2 ✺
04.09.26	Atlético La Paz - Mineros de Zacatecas	3:0 ✺
27.08.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:2 ✺
21.08.26	Atlético La Paz - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0
10.10.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz	1:1
04.04.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz	2:2
18.10.24	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
20.04.24	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:2
22.03.24	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
19.09.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz	2:2

Upcoming Matches