Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Jimenez Morales B. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 4
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tapatío		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.50	3.60
	1.90	3.45	3.45	Watch
	1.83	3.89	4.21
	1.95	3.75	3.53	Watch
	1.93	3.70	3.60
	1.78	3.58	3.78	Watch
	1.84	3.65	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.91)	3.65 ↓ (3.75)	3.67 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
49.6%

Draw
25.3%

Tlaxcala
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

24.9%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

25.7%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Tapatío - Tlaxcala Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Garcia E. (G) 56. Chavez A. 53. Soldati C. 46. Hernandez C. 58. Uribe J. 59. Inda S. 47. Garcia G. 44. Zamora S. (C) 182. Calderon L. 49. Moragrega V. 57. Hernandez J.	22. Bedolla P. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 21. Garcia E. 3. Santos E. 17. Zamudio J. 23. Gonzalez P. 25. Flores B. 11. Alvarez D. 24. Robles E. 7. Hernandez E.
Substitutes
63. Cendejas M. 65. Corona C. 55. Esparza S. 64. Latorre D. 60. Ledesma L. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 50. Medina C. 54. Nuno R. 43. Parra R. 69. Villaseca D.	19. Camacho Lastra R. E. 9. Christian 12. Freyfeld J. 2. Gonzalez C. 28. Hernandez D. 31. Hernandez R. 6. Iniestra A. 30. Nuno A. (G) 8. Plascencia F. 20. Sanchez A.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Ortega A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Garcia G. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Garcia G. ⚽, Uribe J. (A),
30', Soldati C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Garcia G. ↓, Villaseca D. ↑,
52', Alvarez D. (Penalty Awarded),
54', 2 - 0, Moragrega V. ⚽, Villaseca D. (A),
59', Hernandez E. ↓, Camacho Lastra R. E. ↑,
59', Alvarez D. ↓, Christian ↑,
60', 3 - 0, Moragrega V. ⚽, Uribe J. (A),
61', 4 - 0, Hernandez J. ⚽, Zamora S. (A),
67', Zamudio J. ↓, Plascencia F. ↑,
67', Santos E. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
67', Moragrega V. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
68', Soldati C. ↓, Esparza S. ↑,
77', Uribe J. ↓, Nuno R. ↑,
77', Hernandez J. ↓, Cendejas M. ↑,
84', Govea I. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
87', Plascencia F. 🟥,
90', Esparza S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 10th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 4.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Tapatío may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tapatío holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Tapatío has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:12 (averaging 1.6:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tapatío against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:3 goals (averaging 1.5:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17:15	2	14
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	1:3 ✺
27.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Tapatío - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:2 ✺
14.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LLTWW
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Dorados - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.04.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	3:0
13.09.25	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	1:0
09.03.25	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	1:0
21.09.24	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	2:3
12.03.24	Tlaxcala - Tapatío	0:3
24.08.23	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	2:0
06.05.23	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	1:1

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