Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Sanchez M. E. L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tapatío		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.75
	2.15	3.4	3	Watch
	2.22	3.51	3.19
	2.15	3.67	3.07	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.75
	2.13	3.32	3.04	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.3)	3.42 ↓ (3.46)	2.94 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tapatío
41.9%

Draw
26.9%

Atlético Morelia
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

27.4%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Tapatío - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
201. Liceaga J. (G) 56. Chavez A. 46. Egurrola L. 57. Hernandez J. 225. Inda S. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 49. Moragrega V. 43. Parra R. 62. Tellez B. 44. Zamora S. (C)	22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. (C) 32. Moreno G. 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 20. Palma A. 4. Zamora D.
Substitutes
67. Aguayo S. 63. Cendejas M. 55. Esparza S. 54. Freyfeld E. 51. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 50. Medina C. 47. Ortiz G. 53. Soldati C. 58. Uribe J. 69. Villaseca D.	7. Aguilera A. D. 153. Alejandre R. G. 119. Avila Jaimes H. E. 150. Conejo J. 23. Esqueda D. 11. Figueroa B. 28. Flores A. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 10. Munoz Z.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Moragrega V. ⚽, Jimenez L. (A),
28', Jimenez L. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, del Campo R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hernandez J. ↓, Aguayo S. ↑,
46', Jimenez L. ↓, Esparza S. ↑,
46', Nambo M. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
48', Moragrega V. (Penalty Awarded),
56', Moragrega V. 🟨,
60', Moragrega V. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
66', Ledesma L. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
69', del Campo R. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
70', Moreno G. ↓, Avila Jaimes H. E. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Zamora S. ⚽, Medina C. (A),
77', Dominguez M. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
77', Ochoa Brandon ↓, Figueroa B. ↑,
78', Tellez B. ↓, Soldati C. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 2.

Tapatío has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Morelia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17:15	2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.03.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	4:3 ✺
06.03.26	Tapatío - Cancún	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	Tapatío - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Atlante - Tapatío	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LLTWW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.10.25	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0
17.01.25	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	1:0
02.08.24	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	1:4
17.02.24	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	0:0
17.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0
20.05.23	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:2
17.05.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	1:2

Upcoming Matches