Match Info

MEXICO: LIGA DE EXPANSION MX - CLAUSURA - ROUND 16

Date: 12 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)

Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)


	Alacranes de Durango		Tapatío

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3	3.5
	1.92	3.3	3.6
	2.05	3.28	3.95
	2	3.24	3.75	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.45)	3.19 ↑ (3)	3.65 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
45.9%

Draw
28.9%

Tapatío
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

30.2%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

30.7%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alacranes de Durango's performance.

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tapatío might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alacranes de Durango that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tapatío could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Alacranes de Durango - Tapatío Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alacranes de Durango will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Tapatío will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alacranes de Durango: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Tapatío could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Alacranes de Durango will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.04.23	Raya2 Expansión - Alacranes de Durango	1:1 ✺
29.03.23	Alacranes de Durango - Correcaminos UAT	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	Tlaxcala - Alacranes de Durango	1:2 ✺
22.03.23	Alacranes de Durango - Pumas Tabasco	1:1 ✺
19.03.23	Celaya - Alacranes de Durango	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWWTL
- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.04.23	Tapatío - Dorados	4:0 ✺
29.03.23	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:2 ✺
22.03.23	Venados - Tapatío	0:0 ✺
16.03.23	Tapatío - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.06.22	Tapatío - Alacranes de Durango	3:1

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