The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tapatío 63.9%
Draw 20.1%
Tepatitlán de Morelos 16%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
60.1%
21.8%
18.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.8%
16.2%
24.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-19.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tapatío that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+8.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tepatitlán de Morelos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions
Users Predictions:
Tapatío will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Liceaga J. (G) 43. Parra R. 53. Soldati C. 42. Delgadillo D. 58. Uribe J. 196. Covarrubias D. 64. Latorre D. 44. Zamora S. (C) 255. Gutierrez G. 69. Villaseca D. 49. Moragrega V.
30. Gatica A. (G) 24. Valencia V. 36. Sanchez J. 38. Cardenas A. 13. Martinez N. 40. Tamay A. 25. Moreno A. 5. Villalpando D. (C) 37. Egurrola L. 39. Cruz J. 23. Godinez J.
Substitutes
199. Ben Rhouma A. 63. Cendejas M. 45. Garcia E. (G) 47. Garcia G. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 50. Medina C. 54. Nuno R. 70. Torres L.
33. Alcantar E. 32. Arevalo T. 31. Casas B. 3. Contreras I. 44. Modica F. 11. Olvera G. 9. Paez L. 35. Rodriguez D. (G) 22. Sanguinetti F. 10. Vazquez H.
Coaches
Melendez J.
Olvera G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Moragrega V. ⚽,
16', Zamora S. 🟨,
20', Cruz J. 🟨,
22', 2 - 0, Moragrega V. ⚽,
26', 2 - 1, Cruz J. ⚽,
36', 3 - 1, Villaseca D. ⚽, Uribe J. (A),
40', Sanchez J. 🟨,
44', Martinez N. 🟨,
45+2', Soldati C. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Uribe J. ↓, Jimenez L. ↑,
46', Martinez N. 🟨,
46', Moragrega V. ↓, Zamarripa D. ↑,
56', Villaseca D. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
62', Godinez J. ↓, Casas B. ↑,
62', Valencia V. ↓, Contreras I. ↑,
63', Egurrola L. ↓, Olvera G. ↑,
65', Garcia G. (Penalty Awarded),
69', Zamora S. ↓, Ledesma L. ↑,
69', Moreno A. ↓, Sanguinetti F. ↑,
70', Gatica A. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
85', Gutierrez G. ↓, Nuno R. ↑,
87', 4 - 1, Garcia G. ⚽, Jimenez L. (A),
90', Sanguinetti F. 🟨,
Preview
A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 11th and 16th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 0.
Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.
Recently, Tepatitlán has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
Tapatío carries the favorite tag into this contest.
In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Tapatío has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:17 (averaging 1:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tapatío against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 7:9 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
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Liceaga J. (G) 
Villaseca D. 
Ben Rhouma A. 
Arevalo T. 
Modica F. 
Paez L. 
Sanguinetti F. 
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