Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Miranda E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	20:00	Disney+
Brazil	20:00	Disney+
Chile	20:00	Disney+
Colombia	18:00	Disney+
Mexico	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 4
Peru	18:00	Disney+
Uruguay	20:00	Disney+
Venezuela	19:00	Disney+


	Tapatío		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	3.50	2.00
	3.00	3.45	2.08	Watch
	3.13	4.08	2.07
	3.19	3.81	2.05	Watch
	3.05	4.00	2.04
	3.09	3.74	2.09	Watch
	2.85	3.65	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.94)	3.75 ↑ (3.52)	2.05 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
30.4%

Draw
24.6%

Atlético Morelia
45%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.8%

26.5%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

25.6%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Tapatío - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Morelia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Liceaga J. (G) 42. Delgadillo D. 53. Soldati C. 55. Esparza S. 58. Uribe J. 70. Torres L. 196. Covarrubias D. 44. Zamora S. (C) 255. Gutierrez G. 69. Villaseca D. 49. Moragrega V.	22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 5. Van Rankin J. 6. De Buen D. 4. Zamora D. 16. Sandoval R. 8. Martinez J. (C) 13. Andrade A. 19. Rodriguez M. 10. Dominguez M. 20. Aguilar D. 9. del Campo R.
Substitutes
63. Cendejas M. 65. Corona C. 47. Garcia G. 48. Jimenez L. 64. Latorre D. 60. Ledesma L. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 50. Medina C. 54. Nuno R. 43. Parra R.	15. Botello O. 21. Castellanos E. 30. Conejo J. 28. Flores A. 1. Galan R. (G) 32. Izarra A. 2. Lopez Aburto R. 11. Lopez V. 18. Martinez G. 17. Nambo M.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Colace H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', De Buen D. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, De Buen D. ⚽,
31', Covarrubias D. 🟨,
42', Soldati C. 🟨,
45+1', del Campo R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Martinez J. 🟨,
55', Dominguez M. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
56', Rodriguez M. ↓, Lopez Aburto R. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Nambo M. ⚽, del Campo R. (A),
67', Torres L. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
67', Gutierrez G. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
71', Villaseca D. 🟨,
75', del Campo R. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
75', Martinez J. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
76', Uribe J. ↓, Ledesma L. ↑,
76', Ledesma L. 🟥,
77', Delgadillo D. 🟨,
78', Covarrubias D. ↓, Jimenez L. ↑,
81', Villaseca D. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Moragrega V. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Andrade A. 🟥,
88', Moragrega V. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 10th and 3rd in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Atlético Morelia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Tapatío has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:16 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tapatío against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 10:9 goals (averaging 1.4:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Morelia ✔	14	8	2	4	25:16	9	26
11	Tapatio	14	5	2	7	24:27	-3	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.10.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tapatío	5:0 ✺
13.10.26	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	4:1 ✺
09.10.26	Tapatío - Atlético La Paz	2:4 ✺
03.10.26	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.10.26	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
09.10.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.03.26	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:1
11.10.25	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0
17.01.25	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	1:0
02.08.24	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	1:4
17.02.24	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	0:0
17.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0
20.05.23	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:2

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