Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Final

Date: 23 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Peinaldo Aguirre Y. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, ESPN, Fox Sports, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes, ViX Gratis, VIX+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
South-america	ViX Latin America
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Tapatío		Celaya

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.3	2.2
	2.95	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.12	3.58	2.25
	3.03	3.51	2.22	Watch
	3	3.4	2.1
	3.02	3.52	2.22	Watch
	2.95	3.5	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.48)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	2.2 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
31.2%

Draw
26.7%

Celaya
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

28%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

28.2%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tapatío's form might have worsened.

Celaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celaya's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tapatío, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Celaya, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tapatío - Celaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Garcia E. (G) 63. Cendejas M. 42. Delgadillo D. 70. El-mesmari B. 64. Flores D. 49. Garcia G. 47. Garcia G. 53. Garcia U. 54. Gomez M. 48. Jimenez L. 55. Wilke T.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 2. Cervantes D. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 7. Martinez J. 4. Munoz J. 20. Tovar J. 23. Vazquez J. 9. Wlk Dure A. S.
Substitutes
52. Alvarez S. 57. Guajardo D. 188. Mendez F. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 65. Rey L. 56. Sanchez B. 69. Villaseca D.	31. Barragan M. 25. Blanco D. 156. Chaurand K. 6. Del Angel E. 30. Hernandez J. 3. Monreal E. 17. Montejano E. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 11. Tejeda D.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', de los Santos L. 🟥,
30', Gamboa J. ↓, Del Angel E. ↑,
45+3', 0 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Cervantes D. ⚽,
51', Tovar J. 🟨,
56', Delgadillo D. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
57', Cendejas M. ↓, Rey L. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Sanchez B. ⚽,
70', 2 - 2, Wilke T. ⚽,
74', Wlk Dure A. S. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
80', Camberos H. ↓, Mendez F. ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Zamora S. ⚽,
85', Vazquez J. ↓, Montejano E. ↑,
85', Dominguez A. ↓, Barragan M. ↑,
88', Garcia G. ↓, Jimenez L. ↑,
88', Ledesma Hurtado L. E. ↓, Villaseca D. ↑,
89', Sanchez B. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tapatío won 3.

Recent matches Tapatío is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Celaya is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Tapatío won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:18 (average 1.3:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Tapatío won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:5 (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.11.24	Celaya - Tapatío	1:2 ✺
17.11.24	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2 ✺
14.11.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	2:2 ✺
10.11.24	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
07.11.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WTTTT
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.11.24	Celaya - Tapatío	1:2 ✺
17.11.24	Atlante - Celaya	0:3 ✺
14.11.24	Celaya - Atlante	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Celaya - Venados	4:1 ✺
06.11.24	Venados - Celaya	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.11.24	Celaya - Tapatío	1:2
01.11.24	Tapatío - Celaya	1:1
27.04.24	Tapatío - Celaya	2:0
24.04.24	Celaya - Tapatío	4:3
11.04.24	Celaya - Tapatío	1:2
10.08.23	Tapatío - Celaya	1:1
03.02.23	Tapatío - Celaya	2:2

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