Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 November 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero (Mérida)

Referee: Garcia L. (Mex)


	Venados		Celaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.7
	2.25	3.4	2.95	Watch
	2.35	3.45	3.12
	2.33	3.31	3	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.8
	2.29	3.4	2.99	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.25)	3.35 ↑ (3.3)	2.93 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venados
40.7%

Draw
27.6%

Celaya
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

27.3%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

26%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Venados - Celaya Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Venados will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ramirez S. (G) 18. Amador K. 19. Catalan A. 3. de Alba J. 17. Garcia M. 27. Garcia M. 21. Lopez F. 29. Lora S. 9. Nequecaur L. 25. Trejo Castro M. A. 33. Vidrio N.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 2. Cervantes D. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 14. Manriquez S. 4. Munoz J. 20. Tovar J. 23. Vazquez J. 9. Wlk Dure A. S.
Substitutes
23. Barragan J. 2. Casillas J. 10. Guzman W. 6. Lopez F. 11. Plaza S. 1. Reyes D. (G) 5. Rodriguez J. 30. Sandoval H. 35. Suarez V. 147. Torres Sauri M.	25. Blanco D. 156. Chaurand K. 6. Del Angel E. 170. Gonzalez G. 30. Hernandez J. 7. Martinez J. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 11. Tejeda D.
Coaches
Esparza R.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Cervantes D. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Amador K. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Dominguez A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', 1 - 2, Wlk Dure A. S. ⚽,
49', 1 - 3, Dominguez A. ⚽,
59', Lopez F. ↓, Plaza S. ↑,
59', Amador K. ↓, Guzman W. ↑,
67', 2 - 3, Nequecaur L. ⚽,
70', 2 - 4, Wlk Dure A. S. ⚽,
73', Wlk Dure A. S. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
78', Garcia M. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
78', Trejo Castro M. A. ↓, Casillas J. ↑,
81', Dominguez A. ↓, Del Angel E. ↑,
81', Gamboa J. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
87', Baltazar C. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 4, Casillas J. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Venados won 3.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Venados won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 14:25 (average 0.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Venados won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8:13 (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.11.24	Venados - Leones Negros UdeG	3:0 ✺
26.10.24	Tlaxcala - Venados	1:1 ✺
18.10.24	Venados - Dorados	4:0 ✺
12.10.24	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	2:2 ✺
04.10.24	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTWTW
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.11.24	Tapatío - Celaya	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Celaya	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Celaya - Tlaxcala	1:0 ✺
13.10.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Celaya	1:5 ✺
05.10.24	Celaya - Cancún	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
09.08.24	Venados - Celaya	1:1
05.03.24	Celaya - Venados	0:2
16.09.23	Venados - Celaya	1:0
25.03.23	Celaya - Venados	2:1
14.07.22	Venados - Celaya	3:2
13.04.22	Celaya - Venados	1:0
27.07.21	Venados - Celaya	1:2

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