Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Referee: Perez S. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Claro Sports, ESPN, FOX Sports 2, Fox Sports, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
World	Disney+


	Celaya		Atlante

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	2.75	2.8
	2.55	2.85	2.95	Watch
	2.75	2.83	3.24
	2.73	2.62	3.16	Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.88
	2.61	2.85	3.02	Watch
	2.55	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.5)	2.79 ↓ (3.3)	3 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
35.9%

Draw
33.2%

Atlante
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

27.5%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

28.6%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Atlante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlante might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Celaya - Atlante Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Celaya will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Atlante will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 2. Cervantes D. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 14. Manriquez S. 4. Munoz J. 20. Tovar J. 23. Vazquez J. (C) 9. Wlk Dure A. S.	20. Hernandez H. (C) 28. Elbis 27. Escobar A. 8. Gonzalez R. 21. Ibarra J. 34. Jimenez E. 17. Mejia L. 5. Meza H. 2. Reyes F. 11. Sayago D. 4. Villanueva C.
Substitutes
25. Blanco D. 156. Chaurand K. 6. Del Angel E. 170. Gonzalez G. 30. Hernandez J. 136. Luna E. G. 7. Martinez J. 17. Montejano E. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 11. Tejeda D.	37. Bello B. 3. Cruz D. 30. Espinoza E. 31. Forastiero N. (G) 6. Galvan P. 16. Magana D. 19. Martinez P. 10. Navarro F. 22. Sanchez A. 38. Tenorio J.
Coaches
Blanco Soto S. R.	Alcantar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Wlk Dure A. S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Cervantes D. 🟨,
49', 1 - 1, Escobar A. ⚽,
55', de los Santos L. 🟨,
61', Manriquez S. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
71', Ibarra J. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
76', de los Santos L. ↓, Del Angel E. ↑,
76', Gamboa J. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
80', Villanueva C. ↓, Martinez P. ↑,
83', Mejia L. ↓, Galvan P. ↑,
83', Escobar A. ↓, Magana D. ↑,
83', Sayago D. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
88', Dominguez A. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
90+3', Sanchez A. 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Celaya won 0.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Atlante could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Celaya won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 21:22 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Celaya won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:11 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
09.11.24	Celaya - Venados	4:1 ✺
06.11.24	Venados - Celaya	3:4 ✺
01.11.24	Tapatío - Celaya	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Celaya	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Celaya - Tlaxcala	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWTTW
- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.11.24	Atlante - Dorados	3:0 ✺
07.11.24	Dorados - Atlante	3:1 ✺
04.11.24	Atlante - Jaiba Brava	4:0 ✺
25.10.24	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlante	0:1 ✺
20.10.24	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.09.24	Celaya - Atlante	0:1
14.01.24	Atlante - Celaya	2:1
22.08.23	Celaya - Atlante	0:0
15.02.23	Atlante - Celaya	1:0
12.11.22	Celaya - Atlante	1:3 ET
09.11.22	Atlante - Celaya	0:0
28.09.22	Celaya - Atlante	2:1

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