Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Perez Borja D. S. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Leones Negros UdeG		Dorados

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.80	4.10
	1.52	4.00	5.00	Watch
	1.71	4.16	4.57
	1.65	4.17	4.62	Watch
	1.66	4.10	4.50
	1.69	3.97	4.46	Watch
	1.66	3.85	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.73)	4.01 ↑ (3.94)	4.49 ↑ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
56.3%

Draw
23.1%

Dorados
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

23.3%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

22.8%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Dorados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Leones Negros UdeG will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Dorados will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones Negros UdeG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Leones Negros UdeG (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones Negros UdeG (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 24. Aguayo J. 5. Torres U. 11. Perez J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.	21. Castro J. (G) 20. Osuna D. 4. Franco R. 32. Castro C. 5. Flores A. 17. Pena F. (C) 13. Padilla G. 28. Ordorica B. 18. Cervantes S. 10. Vargas L. 6. Guajardo D.
Substitutes
10. Brigido J. 15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 3. Flores L. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 27. Meza U. 154. Morales F. 167. Nuno M. 31. Valenzuela M.	7. Alvarez J. 11. Contreras F. 29. Coronel O. 12. Egana A. 34. Flores I. (G) 22. Gonzalez Rodriguez W. 26. Gutierrez E. 15. Leyva C. 9. Rengifo J. 23. Sanchez B.
Coaches
Sosa A.	Orozco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Razo L. ⚽, Torres U. (A),
22', 2 - 0, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ⚽,
37', 3 - 0, Razo L. ⚽, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. (A),
37', Padilla G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', Flores A. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
46', Ordorica B. ↓, Rengifo J. ↑,
61', 3 - 1, Osuna D. ⚽, Padilla G. (A),
63', Guajardo D. ↓, Contreras F. ↑,
68', 4 - 1, Hernandez S. A. ⚽,
69', Perez J. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
69', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
74', Vargas L. ↓, Coronel O. ↑,
77', 5 - 1, Marchand J. ⚽, Gil O. (A),
78', Padilla G. ↓, Egana A. ↑,
82', Escalante J. ↓, Nuno M. ↑,
82', Hernandez S. A. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
82', Razo L. ↓, Loera K. ↑,
83', 5 - 2, Coronel O. ⚽, Contreras F. (A),
88', 5 - 3, Coronel O. ⚽, Rengifo J. (A),
90', 6 - 3, Gil O. ⚽, Brigido J. (A),
90+5', Aguayo J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 4.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this matchup, Leones Negros UdeG is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Leones Negros UdeG has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:17 (averaging 1.5:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Leones Negros UdeG against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 13:5 goals (averaging 1.4:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
11	Dorados de Sinaloa	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Leones Negros UdeG - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.18%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLTWT
- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.09.26	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Dorados - Cancún	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
03.09.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.03.26	Dorados - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1
04.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	2:0
19.01.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	4:0
03.08.24	Dorados - Leones Negros UdeG	0:1
20.03.24	Dorados - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2
14.09.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	4:0
20.04.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	2:0

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