Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria)

Referee: Villa R. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Correcaminos UAT		Dorados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.65	3.55
	2.38	3.67	2.82
	2.46	2.95	3.09	Watch
	1.85	3.65	3.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.77)	3.48 ↓ (3.89)	3.31 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Correcaminos UAT
44.3%

Draw
27.2%

Dorados
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

23.7%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

19.9%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Correcaminos UAT has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Correcaminos UAT's form might have worsened.

Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Correcaminos UAT - Dorados Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dorados (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Chavez L. (G) 88. Aguilar A. 104. Arce R. 20. Estopier J. 8. Garcia J. 10. Hernandez E. 28. Lopez M. 15. Mengual A. 13. Moreno G. (C) 3. Pereyra J. 91. Sarmiento M.	13. Barrera G. (G) 8. Cortes J. 5. Flores A. 15. Galicia C. 11. Garcia L. 3. Manriquez S. 24. Ramirez A. 9. Rengifo J. 4. Ruiz L. 27. Sanchez E. (C) 23. Vargas L.
Substitutes
106. Aguilar S. 11. Espinosa Y. 17. Garcia J. 93. Hernandez L. 84. Martinez J. (G) 27. Martinez J. 2. Pineda I. 85. Rubli G. 19. Trevino S. 30. Villareal A.	35. Acurio J. 7. Alvarez J. 18. Higuera C. (G) 17. Leyva C. 33. Parra R. 31. Ramos A. 28. Suarez L. 26. Valenzuela A. 19. Vazquez D. 2. Yanez S.
Coaches
Urbina J.	Ramirez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Ruiz L. 🟨,
25', Cortes J. 🟨,
27', Hernandez E. (Pen),
38', Aguilar A. 🟨,
45+2', Vargas L. 🟥,
45+2', Garcia J. ↓, Trevino S. ↑,
45+10', Mengual A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ramirez A. ↓, Leyva C. ↑,
46', Moreno G. ↓, Pineda I. ↑,
46', Aguilar A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
46', Arce R. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
69', Estopier J. 🟨,
70', Estopier J. ↓, Espinosa Y. ↑,
77', Rengifo J. ↓, Acurio J. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Sarmiento M. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
87', Leyva C. ↓, Parra R. ↑,
87', Garcia L. ↓, Yanez S. ↑,
90+2', Galicia C. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
90+7', Martinez J. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 3.

In recent games, both teams have suffered a series of defeats.

Dorados may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Correcaminos is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Correcaminos won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.25	Irapuato - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6 ✺
19.09.25	Tapatío - Correcaminos UAT	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLTLL
- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.10.25	Dorados - Atlante	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Dorados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.02.25	Correcaminos UAT - Dorados	3:1
07.09.24	Dorados - Correcaminos UAT	3:1
13.02.24	Dorados - Correcaminos UAT	3:0
22.07.23	Correcaminos UAT - Dorados	2:0
16.04.23	Dorados - Correcaminos UAT	0:1
15.09.22	Correcaminos UAT - Dorados	0:2
09.01.22	Correcaminos UAT - Dorados	1:2

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