Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala)

Referee: Ortega O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	AYM Sports, Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Aym Sports, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tlaxcala		Jaiba Brava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.10	2.80
	2.35	3.25	2.95
	2.40	3.33	3.10
	2.37	3.29	2.96	Watch
	2.35	3.25	2.95
	2.34	3.24	2.99	Watch
	2.26	3.15	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.38)	3.23 ↑ (3.09)	2.96 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
39.8%

Draw
28.8%

Jaiba Brava
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

29.5%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

28.2%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Jaiba Brava will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bedolla P. (G) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 3. Santos E. 21. Garcia E. 1. Govea I. (C) 23. Gonzalez P. 16. Ramirez M. 11. Alvarez D. 28. Hernandez D. 7. Hernandez E. 24. Robles E.	13. Ruiz G. (C) 16. Martinez J. 17. Ramirez I. 26. Manzanarez O. 2. Bocco L. 7. Magana D. 5. Ochoa I. 20. Tovar J. 11. Cruz C. 9. Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 10. Torres E.
Substitutes
19. Camacho Lastra R. E. 9. Christian 12. Freyfeld J. 31. Hernandez R. 6. Iniestra A. 30. Nuno A. (G) 8. Plascencia F. 20. Sanchez A. 17. Zamudio J.	22. Arriaga N. 1. Garcia J. (G) 8. Gonzalez R. 158. Gonzalez R. 19. Lopez D. 21. Lopez F. 6. Lopez Gonzalez J. 33. Martinez S. 177. Mendez O. 18. Serna A.
Coaches
Ortega A.	Ruiz M. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Gonzalez P. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Robles E. ⚽,
44', Ramirez M. ↓, Zamudio J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Trejo Castro M. A. 🟨,
54', Bocco L. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
64', Hernandez E. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
64', Gonzalez P. ↓, Camacho Lastra R. E. ↑,
69', Cruz C. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
69', Magana D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
77', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
78', Ochoa I. ↓, Lopez Gonzalez J. ↑,
87', Alvarez D. ↓, Christian ↑,
87', Santos E. ↓, Freyfeld J. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Christian ⚽,
90', Christian 🟨,
90+1', Tovar J. 🟨,
90+1', Ramirez I. 🟨,
90+3', Tovar J. 🟨,
90+5', Garcia E. 🟨,
90+6', Lopez D. 🟨,
90+8', 3 - 1, Christian ⚽, Sanchez A. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Jaiba Brava may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 0.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12:19	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	3:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Dorados - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
06.08.26	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLTL
- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
05.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Jaiba Brava	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Jaiba Brava - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	4:0 ✺
01.08.26	Tapatío - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Tlaxcala	0:0
11.10.25	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	1:1
01.03.25	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	0:0
14.09.24	Jaiba Brava - Tlaxcala	0:1
12.04.22	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	1:0
14.09.21	Jaiba Brava - Tlaxcala	0:2
09.02.21	Jaiba Brava - Tlaxcala	1:0

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