Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Unilever Stadium Shintomi (Miyazaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	Fuji TV Next


	Tegevajaro Miyazaki		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	5.75	4	1.5	Watch
	5.5	3.8	1.49
	6.4	4.1	1.49
	5.96	4.26	1.46	Watch
	6	3.8	1.44
	6.79	4.2	1.47	Watch
	6.4	4.1	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.11 ↑ (4.94)	4.04 ↑ (3.82)	1.48 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
15%

Draw
22.8%

Nagoya Grampus
62.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

24.4%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

20.2%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nagoya Grampus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nagoya Grampus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Lee Chung-won (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 45. Tanaka S. 39. Shimokawa Y. 50. Yasuda K. 34. Kawai T. 20. Ano M. 18. Yoshizawa S. 41. Sakai S. 42. Matsumoto K.	1. Schmidt D. (G) 3. Sato Y. 20. Mikuni K. 6. Kawazura A. 70. Hara T. 15. Inagaki S. 26. Kato G. 7. Izumi R. 9. Asano Y. 14. Morishima T. 18. Nagai K.
Substitutes
40. Ando R. 35. Egawa G. 10. Inoue R. 13. Nakano K. 6. Okuma K. 47. Okumura K. 8. Rikiyasu S. 21. Shimizu R. (G) 25. Yokokubo K.	33. Kikuchi T. 31. Kodama T. (G) 4. Miya D. 27. Nakayama K. 2. Nogami Y. 8. Shiihashi K. 30. Sugiura S. 17. Uchida T. 66. Yamanaka R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Sakai S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kawai T. ↓, Rikiyasu S. ↑,
57', Sato Y. 🟨,
67', Yoshizawa S. ↓, Okumura K. ↑,
67', Sakai S. ↓, Inoue R. ↑,
67', Hara T. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
67', Nagai K. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
83', Shimokawa Y. ↓, Okuma K. ↑,
83', Morishima T. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
90', Ano M. ↓, Ando R. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 3)
91', Izumi R. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
98', 0 - 1, Kikuchi T. ⚽,
99', Sato Y. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
109', Kato G. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
112', 0 - 2, Asano Y. ⚽,
120+1', 0 - 3, Asano Y. ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Tegevajaro Miyazaki is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nagoya is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Nagoya is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
16.03.25	Tochigi City - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	3:2 ✺
09.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
02.03.25	Tochigi - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:2 ✺
23.02.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Fukushima United	3:1 ✺
16.02.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagano Parceiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LTWWL
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Tokyo Verdy - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
26.02.25	Tokyo - Nagoya Grampus	3:1 ✺
22.02.25	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLLT

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