Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Vissel Kobe

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.2	2.57	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.62
	2.78	3.27	2.72
	2.63	3.28	2.72	Watch
	2.63	3	2.5
	2.7	3.13	2.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↓ (3.14)	3.16 ↓ (3.43)	2.63 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
35.1%

Draw
29.4%

Vissel Kobe
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

27.5%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

27.4%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Vissel Kobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vissel Kobe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nagoya Grampus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vissel Kobe than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vissel Kobe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Vissel Kobe will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 13. Fujii H. 3. Sato Y. 9. Asano Y. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 31. Takamine T. 27. Nakayama K. 25. Marcus Vinicius 14. Morishima T. 11. Yamagishi Y.	71. Gonda S. (G) 23. Hirose R. 4. Yamakawa T. (C) 3. Thuler M. 41. Nagato K. 5. Goke Y. 6. Ogihara T. 7. Ideguchi Y. 11. Muto Y. 29. Komatsu R. 13. Sasaki D.
Substitutes
7. Izumi R. 33. Kikuchi T. 22. Kimura Y. 20. Mikuni K. 44. Mori S. 18. Nagai K. 2. Nogami Y. 35. Pisano A. (G) 8. Shiihashi K.	16. Caetano 15. Diego 28. Hamasaki K. 44. Hidaka M. 14. Inui T. 1. Maekawa D. (G) 80. Nduka B. 10. Osako Y. 43. Yamada K.
Coaches
Petrovic M.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Komatsu R. ⚽, Nagato K. (A),
43', Morishima T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Asano Y. ↓, Izumi R. ↑,
46', Morishima T. ↓, Mori S. ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Ideguchi Y. ⚽, Sasaki D. (A),
62', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
62', Sato Y. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
75', Komatsu R. ↓, Osako Y. ↑,
78', Hara T. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
81', Marcus Vinicius 🟨,
84', Goke Y. ↓, Diego ↑,
84', Ogihara T. ↓, Hidaka M. ↑,
88', 0 - 3, Nagato K. ⚽,
90+2', Hirose R. ↓, Caetano ↑,
90+2', Nagato K. ↓, Yamada K. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Vissel Kobe is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T. (Injury) Mateus (Injury) Morishima T. (Injury)

There will not play in Vissel Kobe: Arai S. (Knee Injury) Sakai G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nagoya: Izumi R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:28. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Vissel Kobe: 20.95% Nagoya Grampus: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Vissel Kobe	4	2	1	1	4:3	1	7
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Nagoya Grampus - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 30.09%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Vissel Kobe - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:5 ✺
01.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLLWW
- Vissel Kobe
AFC Champions League
11.03.26	Vissel Kobe - FC Seoul	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	FC Seoul - Vissel Kobe	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	Johor Darul Takzim - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
15.06.25	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
22.02.25	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	2:2
20.07.24	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	3:3
03.05.24	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	0:2
25.11.23	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	2:1
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	0:1
Japan J1 League
03.05.23	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	2:2

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