Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nagoya Grampus		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.20
	3	3.3	2.22	Watch
	3.15	3.56	2.35
	3.06	3.48	2.28	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.25
	3.37	3.35	2.19	Watch
	3.05	3.35	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↓ (3.4)	3.4 ↑ (3.25)	2.23 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
30.2%

Draw
27.7%

Machida Zelvia
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

28.3%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

28%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	14.3%	78.6%

Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Pisano A. (G) 2. Nogami Y. 13. Fujii H. 55. Tokumoto S. 7. Izumi R. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 31. Takamine T. 27. Nakayama K. 9. Asano Y. 22. Kimura Y. 18. Nagai K.	1. Tani K. (G) 50. Okamura D. 4. Kikuchi R. 3. Shoji G. (C) 88. Nakamura H. 16. Mae H. 23. Shirasaki R. 33. Akimoto T. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 9. Ogawa K.
Substitutes
70. Hara T. 33. Kikuchi T. 19. Koda H. 58. Koyamatsu T. 14. Morishima T. 41. Ono M. 3. Sato Y. 1. Schmidt D. (G) 11. Yamagishi Y.	5. Dresevic I. 15. Duke M. 24. Kim Min-Tae 14. Matsuo Y. 6. Mochizuki H. 13. Morita T. (G) 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 99. Yengi T.
Coaches
Petrovic M.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Asano Y. ↓, Yamagishi Y. ↑,
36', Okamura D. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
43', Izumi R. 🟨,
45+7', 0 - 1, Shirasaki R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Nogami Y. ↓, Hara T. ↑,
46', Akimoto T. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Mochizuki H. (Own goal),
65', Nagai K. ↓, Koyamatsu T. ↑,
66', Nishimura T. ↓, Yengi T. ↑,
66', Shirasaki R. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
70', Izumi R. ↓, Sato Y. ↑,
75', 1 - 2, Pisano A. (Own goal),
85', Takamine T. 🟨,
85', Soma Y. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
86', Ogawa K. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
90+7', 1 - 3, Matsuo Y. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 0.

In recent matches, Nagoya has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Machida Zelvia is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Machida Zelvia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Machida Zelvia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Nagoya: Marcus Vinicius (Broken Leg)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Nagoya Grampus: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Machida	4	3	1	0	13:3	10	10
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Nagoya Grampus - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.05%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Machida Zelvia - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.65%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
02.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gainare Tottori	1:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gamba Osaka	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Kashima Antlers - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
02.09.26	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Machida Zelvia - Grulla Morioka	3:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
23.08.26	Machida Zelvia - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.06.26	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ET
30.05.26	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	2:2
30.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	3:1
02.03.25	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	1:2
06.07.24	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	1:0
02.03.24	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	0:1
Japan J2 League
16.08.17	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	3:4

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