Match Info

J3 League - Round 26

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Unilever Stadium Shintomi (Miyazaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tegevajaro Miyazaki		Tochigi

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3
	2.2	3.05	3	Watch
	2.48	3.07	2.99
	2.48	2.75	3.24	Watch
	2.23	3.05	3.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.11)	2.98 ↓ (3.26)	3.07 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
39.5%

Draw
30.7%

Tochigi
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

29.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Tochigi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Tochigi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Lee Chung-won (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 28. Manabe H. 39. Shimokawa Y. 20. Ano M. 50. Yasuda K. 8. Rikiyasu S. 47. Okumura K. 58. Take H. 11. Hashimoto K.	1. Kawata S. (G) 3. Omori H. 88. Uchida K. 25. Iwasaki H. 8. Fukumori K. 77. Fujiwara K. 11. Aoshima T. 18. Kawana R. 81. Nakano K. 10. Igarashi T. 32. Ota R.
Substitutes
35. Egawa G. 10. Inoue R. 42. Matsumoto K. 31. Okamoto M. (G) 6. Okuma K. 41. Sakai S. 45. Tanaka S. 25. Yokokubo K. 18. Yoshizawa S.	14. Diamanka C. 2. Hiramatsu W. 5. Mori R. 80. Otabor K. 22. Takahashi H. 7. Tanahashi A. 27. Tanno K. (G) 29. Yano K. 47. Yoshino H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', Take H. 🟥,
33', 1 - 0, Hashimoto K. ⚽, Okumura K. (A),
43', Nakano K. 🟨,
45', Iwasaki H. ↓, Hiramatsu W. ↑,
45+4', 1 - 1, Igarashi T. ⚽, Nakano K. (A),
45+6', 1 - 2, Nakano K. ⚽, Igarashi T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 3, Ota R. ⚽, Kawana R. (A),
55', 2 - 3, Ano M. ⚽,
62', Ano M. ↓, Sakai S. ↑,
64', Igarashi T. ↓, Otabor K. ↑,
64', Nakano K. ↓, Tanahashi A. ↑,
68', Rikiyasu S. ↓, Inoue R. ↑,
71', Tanahashi A. 🟨,
75', Inoue R. 🟨,
76', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
83', Kawana R. ↓, Mori R. ↑,
83', Fukumori K. ↓, Takahashi H. ↑,
84', Manabe H. ↓, Egawa G. ↑,
84', Okumura K. ↓, Yoshizawa S. ↑,
88', Hashimoto K. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
89', Ota R. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
90+1', Aoshima T. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 8).

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tochigi is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tegevajaro Miyazaki could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
30.08.25	Kochi United - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:2 ✺
23.08.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Azul Claro Numazu	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:3 ✺
26.07.25	Sagamihara - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:0 ✺
21.07.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWLL
- Tochigi SC
Japan J3 League
30.08.25	Tochigi - Nara Club	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Tochigi - Azul Claro Numazu	3:2 ✺
26.07.25	Tochigi City - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Tochigi - Sagamihara	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
02.03.25	Tochigi - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:2

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