Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 11

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Kanseki Stadium Tochigi (Utsunomiya)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Tochigi		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.15	2.92	Watch
	2.34	3.35	3.06
	2.28	3.36	3	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.88
	2.31	3.25	3.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.13)	3.24 ↓ (3.44)	2.98 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi
40.7%

Draw
28.4%

Sagamihara
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

27%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

26.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Sagamihara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Tochigi - Sagamihara Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tochigi will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Sagamihara will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Inokoshi Y. (G) 47. Yoshino H. 6. Abe K. 88. Uchida K. 24. Tabata R. 15. Tsutsumi H. 13. Osone K. 5. Yanagi Y. 17. Sugimori K. 77. Nishino T. 27. Nagai T.	21. Kim Min-ho (G) 19. Okita S. 2. Watahiki K. 4. Shimakawa T. 3. Pytlik K. 10. Nakayama R. 13. Tokida M. 17. Takeuchi T. 24. Sugimoto R. 9. Sasaki K. 7. Tanahashi A.
Substitutes
37. Kimura Y. 9. Kondo Y. 40. Meshino S. 80. Otabor K. 21. Sakuraba R. (G) 19. Shoji H. 26. Tabata T. 39. Yagi K. 29. Yano K.	8. Kambe K. 20. Kawabata Y. 15. Maeda T. 18. Miki K. 22. Sugimoto D. (G) 16. Takano R. 23. Takusari Y. 6. Tokunaga Y. 37. Yamauchi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Sasaki K. ⚽, Okita S. (A),
45', Abe K. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 2, Takeuchi T. ⚽, Sasaki K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Sugimori K. ↓, Kondo Y. ↑,
60', Nakayama R. 🟨,
69', Shimakawa T. ↓, Kambe K. ↑,
77', Nakayama R. ↓, Yamauchi R. ↑,
79', Nagai T. ↓, Otabor K. ↑,
79', Tabata R. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
83', Yoshino H. ↓, Meshino S. ↑,
83', Nishino T. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
86', Tanahashi A. ↓, Maeda T. ↑,
86', Takeuchi T. ↓, Takusari Y. ↑,
86', Sugimoto R. ↓, Kawabata Y. ↑,
89', Yano K. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Tochigi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sagamihara has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tochigi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tochigi won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tochigi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi SC
Japan J2 J3 League
12.04.26	Tochigi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	5:1 ✺
08.04.26	Tochigi - Vanraure Hachinohe	0:3 ✺
04.04.26	Shonan Bellmare - Tochigi	2:1 penalties ✺
28.03.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tochigi	1:3 ✺
22.03.26	Tochigi - Tochigi City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLLWW
- SC Sagamihara
Japan J2 J3 League
12.04.26	Sagamihara - Vegalta Sendai	0:3 ✺
04.04.26	Tochigi City - Sagamihara	1:0 penalties ✺
29.03.26	Vanraure Hachinohe - Sagamihara	2:3 penalties ✺
21.03.26	Sagamihara - Yokohama FC	2:4 ✺
14.03.26	Vegalta Sendai - Sagamihara	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
08.03.26	Sagamihara - Tochigi	4:0
Japan J3 League
20.07.25	Tochigi - Sagamihara	1:2
22.02.25	Sagamihara - Tochigi	1:0
Japan J2 League
09.08.21	Sagamihara - Tochigi	0:0
11.04.21	Tochigi - Sagamihara	0:0

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