Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 33

Date: 3 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma (Maebashi)


	Thespakusatsu Gunma		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.5	1.7	Watch
	5.1	3.65	1.66
	5.36	3.66	1.74
	4.75	3.3	1.62
	5.1	3.66	1.7	Watch
	5.2	3.45	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (3.84)	3.54 ↓ (3.64)	1.68 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thespakusatsu Gunma
18%

Draw
26.5%

Machida Zelvia
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.4%

25.7%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

26.3%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thespakusatsu Gunma's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Machida Zelvia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Thespakusatsu Gunma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Thespakusatsu Gunma - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Thespakusatsu will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Kushibiki M. (G) 5. Kawakami C. 24. Sakai S. 2. Shirowa H. 36. Nakashio D. 10. Sato R. 38. Amagasa T. 15. Kazama K. 47. Sugimoto R. 7. Kawamoto R. 23. Hiramatsu S.	42. Fukui K. (G) 43. Suzuki J. 14. Jang M. 4. Ikeda J. 22. Onaga H. 27. Hirakawa Y. 33. Matsui R. 16. Uno Z. 9. Numata T. 15. Duke M. 25. Fujio S.
Substitutes
3. Hatao H. 42. Ishii R. (G) 9. Kitagawa S. 14. Shiraishi T. 13. Take H. 6. Uchida T. 17. Yamanaka A.	7. Araki S. 47. Matsumoto D. 2. Okuyama M. 23. Popp W. (G) 10. Takahashi D. 39. Vasquez B. 41. Yasui T.
Coaches
Otsuki T.	Kuroda G.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Thespakusatsu won 0.

Thespakusatsu is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Machida Zelvia is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Machida Zelvia is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Thespakusatsu won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 6-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Thespakusatsu won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J2 League
13.08.23	Vegalta Sendai - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:2 ✺
06.08.23	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tochigi	1:0 ✺
29.07.23	Blaublitz Akita - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:0 ✺
23.07.23	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Júbilo Iwata	1:1 ✺
16.07.23	Ventforet Kofu - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 WWTTW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J2 League
26.08.23	Machida Zelvia - Montedio Yamagata	5:0 ✺
19.08.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	3:2 ✺
12.08.23	Machida Zelvia - Júbilo Iwata	2:1 ✺
05.08.23	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	1:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
02.08.23	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
26.02.23	Machida Zelvia - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0
10.07.22	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Machida Zelvia	0:2
22.05.22	Machida Zelvia - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0
14.11.21	Machida Zelvia - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1
20.06.21	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Machida Zelvia	0:1
29.11.20	Machida Zelvia - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:3
11.07.20	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Machida Zelvia	0:1

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