Match Info

J1 League - Round 16

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Shimizu S-Pulse		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.95	2.95	2.55
	3.11	2.97	2.35	Watch
	3.1	2.98	2.67
	3.32	3	2.4	Watch
	2.88	3	2.45
	3.33	3.04	2.39	Watch
	3.15	3	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.71)	3.02 ↓ (3.38)	2.44 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimizu S-Pulse
30.2%

Draw
31.1%

Machida Zelvia
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27.8%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27.4%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

Shimizu S Pulse - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Machida Zelvia (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Machida Zelvia (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oki Y. (G) 41. Haneda K. 4. Hasukawa S. 70. Takagi S. 5. Kitazume K. 36. Uno Z. 98. Matheus Bueno 7. Capixaba 19. Matsuzaki K. 33. Inui T. 23. Kitagawa K.	1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 50. Okamura D. 3. Shoji G. 6. Mochizuki H. 8. Sento K. 16. Mae H. 26. Hayashi K. 20. Nishimura T. 10. Na Sang-Ho 90. Oh Se-Hun
Substitutes
99. Douglas Tanque 71. Inokoshi Y. (G) 11. Nakahara H. 55. Nishihara M. 47. Shimamoto Y. 66. Sumiyoshi J. 21. Yajima S. 14. Yamahara R. 17. Yumiba M.	15. Duke M. 9. Fujio S. 49. Kuwayama K. 13. Morita T. (G) 30. Nakashima Y. 22. Numata T. 18. Shimoda H. 99. Takahashi D. 39. Vasquez B.
Coaches
Akiba T.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Nishimura T. ⚽, Na Sang-Ho (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Haneda K. ↓, Sumiyoshi J. ↑,
59', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
59', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Duke M. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Kitagawa K. (Pen),
66', Matsuzaki K. ↓, Yajima S. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Hayashi K. ⚽,
74', Kitazume K. ↓, Yamahara R. ↑,
78', Kitagawa K. ↓, Douglas Tanque ↑,
78', Uno Z. ↓, Nakahara H. ↑,
82', Sento K. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
82', Nishimura T. ↓, Numata T. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Douglas Tanque ⚽,
90+2', Duke M. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 10).

Recent performances by Shimizu have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Machida Zelvia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
06.05.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Nagoya Grampus	0:3 ✺
29.04.25	Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LLWWW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
07.05.25	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ✺
29.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
25.04.25	Machida Zelvia - Shonan Bellmare	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Vissel Kobe - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
19.08.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	3:2
21.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1
08.10.16	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	2:0
08.06.16	Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2

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