Match Info

J1 League - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	18:00	K-Ball
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	Shimizu S-Pulse		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.25	2.05
	3.90	3.10	2.00
	3.6	3.2	2.02	Watch
	3.89	3.45	2.1
	3.67	3.42	2.05	Watch
	3.85	3.4	2.04
	3.72	3.47	2.04	Watch
	3.65	3.3	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (3.5)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	2.04 (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimizu S-Pulse
25.3%

Draw
28.4%

Machida Zelvia
46.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.3%

28.7%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

27.8%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Shimizu S Pulse - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Shimizu (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Umeda T. (G) 24. Sugai H. 4. Hasukawa S. 15. Honda Y. (C) 25. Brunetti M. 17. Yumiba M. 21. Matsuzaki K. 37. Koizumi K. 47. Shimamoto Y. 7. Capixaba 9. Oh Se-Hun	1. Tani K. (G) 3. Shoji G. (C) 50. Okamura D. 2. Ouwejan T. 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 31. Lavi N. 33. Akimoto T. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 9. Ogawa K.
Substitutes
50. Fujii T. 13. Germain R. 18. Hirato T. 8. Inoue K. 19. Kinoshita K. 81. Kozuka K. 1. Oki Y. (G) 14. Park Seung-Wook 28. Yoshida Y.	5. Dresevic I. 15. Duke M. 13. Morita T. (G) 88. Nakamura H. 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 23. Shirasaki R. 34. Tokumura F.
Coaches
Yoshida T.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Honda Y. 🟨,
31', Matsuzaki K. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Lavi N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
50', 0 - 2, Ogawa K. ⚽, Akimoto T. (A),
57', Koizumi K. ↓, Inoue K. ↑,
57', Capixaba ↓, Fujii T. ↑,
62', 0 - 3, Nishimura T. ⚽, Soma Y. (A),
63', Matsuzaki K. 🟨,
69', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Germain R. ↑,
73', Lavi N. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,
73', Soma Y. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
73', Mochizuki H. ↓, Nakamura H. ↑,
77', 0 - 4, Nishimura T. ⚽, Shoji G. (A),
79', Sugai H. ↓, Yoshida Y. ↑,
79', Yumiba M. ↓, Kozuka K. ↑,
79', Mae H. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
82', 0 - 5, Nishimura T. ⚽,
86', Nishimura T. ↓, Tokumura F. ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 2.

Shimizu is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Machida Zelvia is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Shimizu could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Machida Zelvia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Shimizu: Ishikawa K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Machida Zelvia: Shimoda H. (Inactive).

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Shimizu has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:10 (averaging 1.7:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Shimizu against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 7:4 goals (averaging 2.3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Machida	9	6	2	1	22:10	12	20
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	10	4	2	4	10:11	-1	14

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.6%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
17.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	2:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.10.26	Mito HollyHock - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TLWWW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
18.10.26	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
15.10.26	Tampines Rovers - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.10.26	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
03.10.26	Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 penalties ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Machida Zelvia - Tochigi City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:0
11.05.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	2:2
Japan J2 League
19.08.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	3:2
21.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1
08.10.16	Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia	2:0
08.06.16	Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2

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