Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Machida Zelvia		Albirex Niigata

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2	3.1	4
	2.08	3.02	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.23	4.34
	2.15	3.01	3.96	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.7
	2.14	3.15	3.76	Watch
	2.1	3.05	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.07)	3.07 ↓ (3.21)	3.88 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
45%

Draw
30.7%

Albirex Niigata
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

29.3%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

28.5%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata Predictions

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 50. Okamura D. 3. Shoji G. 26. Hayashi K. 16. Mae H. 18. Shimoda H. 19. Nakayama Y. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 90. Oh Se-Hun	1. Fujita K. (G) 2. Geria J. 5. Fitzgerald M. 38. Mori K. 25. Fujiwara S. 22. Arai T. 6. Akiyama H. 31. Horigome Y. 28. Ota S. 41. Hasegawa M. 7. Taniguchi K.
Substitutes
15. Duke M. 9. Fujio S. 4. Kikuchi R. 49. Kuwayama K. 6. Mochizuki H. 13. Morita T. (G) 10. Na Sang-Ho 8. Sento K. 23. Shirasaki R.	35. Chiba K. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Komi Y. 8. Miyamoto E. 30. Okumura J. 33. Takagi Y. 18. Wakatsuki Y. 9. Yamura K. 23. Yoshimitsu D. (G)
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Shimoda H. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Nishimura T. ⚽, Soma Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mori K. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
76', Soma Y. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
76', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
77', Ota S. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
77', Taniguchi K. ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
77', Horigome Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
84', Shimoda H. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,
84', Nishimura T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
85', Arai T. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Machida Zelvia won 1.

Recent matches Machida Zelvia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Niigata is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Machida Zelvia is a favorite.

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Knee Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Machida Zelvia won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16:26 (average 1.1:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Machida Zelvia won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:12 (average 1.6:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
08.03.25	Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
26.02.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
16.02.25	Machida Zelvia - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWL
- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
08.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	2:2 ✺
26.02.25	Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Albirex Niigata	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J League Cup
08.09.24	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	2:0
04.09.24	Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia	5:0
Japan J1 League
25.08.24	Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia	0:0
01.06.24	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	1:3
Japan Emperors Cup
02.08.23	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	0:1
Japan J2 League
23.10.22	Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia	2:1
15.05.22	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	2:1

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