Match Info

Challenge League - Round 27

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Wolfensberger S. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3


	Thun		Neuchâtel Xamax

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.1	5
	1.53	4.2	5.4
	1.54	4.21	5.67	Watch
	1.44	4	6
	1.53	4.58	5.09	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.46)	4.22 ↓ (4.31)	5.43 ↓ (5.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
61.1%

Draw
21.9%

Neuchâtel Xamax
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

21.4%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

20.5%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Neuchâtel Xamax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neuchâtel Xamax than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Thun - Neuchâtel Xamax Predictions

Users Predictions: Thun will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ziswiler N. (G) 37. Dahler L. 4. Montolio G. 19. Bamert J. 47. Fehr F. 6. Bertone L. (C) 70. Reichmuth N. 8. Janjicic V. 29. Frith D. 74. Rastoder E. 18. Ibayi C.	27. Omeragic E. (G) 19. Cabral E. 15. Epitaux Y. (C) 4. Gunnarsson N. 3. Fontana J. 6. Saiz F. 7. Fatkic K. 18. Hautier J. 11. Ben Seghir S. 99. Mulaj L. 9. Demhasaj S.
Substitutes
7. Castroman M. 5. Franke D. 33. Gutbub M. 25. Marcolli L. 77. Meichtry F. 16. Roth J. 46. Sessolo H. 24. Steffen N. (G) 11. Stewart L.	88. Araz M. 42. Bamba G. 77. Facchinetti M. 5. Hajrulahu L. 20. Kone K. 31. Lentini F. 1. Mossi A. (G) 8. Ramizi S. 38. Soro B.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Braizat A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', Frith D. 🟨,
39', Saiz F. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Bertone L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Frith D. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
50', Ibayi C. 🟨,
62', Demhasaj S. ↓, Soro B. ↑,
62', Saiz F. ↓, Bamba G. ↑,
63', Fontana J. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Mulaj L. ⚽, Fatkic K. (A),
68', Reichmuth N. ↓, Castroman M. ↑,
68', Janjicic V. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
71', Ibayi C. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑,
73', Meichtry F. 🟨,
77', Hautier J. ↓, Kone K. ↑,
77', Ben Seghir S. ↓, Ramizi S. ↑,
77', Rastoder E. ↓, Stewart L. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Stewart L. ⚽, Gutbub M. (A),
86', Cabral E. ↓, Lentini F. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Thun won 3.

Thun is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Xamax is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Thun is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Thun: Burki M. (Foot Injury) Matoshi V. (Injury) Tebily H. (Injury) Tomas M. (Arm Injury)

There will not play in Xamax: Goncalves M. (Injury) Kone K. (Injury) Sidibe I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Xamax: Touati H. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Thun won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 35:30 (average 1.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Thun won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:9 (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Club Friendly
20.03.25	Lausanne-Sport - Thun	2:2 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
14.03.25	Étoile Carouge - Thun	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Thun - Lausanne Ouchy	2:1 ✺
28.02.25	Thun - Stade Nyonnais	2:2 ✺
23.02.25	Wil 1900 - Thun	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTWTW
- Neuchâtel Xamax
Club Friendly
20.03.25	Luzern - Neuchâtel Xamax	3:1 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
16.03.25	Neuchâtel Xamax - Stade Nyonnais	4:0 ✺
07.03.25	Aarau - Neuchâtel Xamax	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Neuchâtel Xamax - Bellinzona	1:1 ✺
21.02.25	Schaffhausen - Neuchâtel Xamax	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
22.11.24	Neuchâtel Xamax - Thun	2:3
27.09.24	Thun - Neuchâtel Xamax	1:0
06.04.24	Thun - Neuchâtel Xamax	4:0
23.02.24	Neuchâtel Xamax - Thun	4:0
07.10.23	Thun - Neuchâtel Xamax	1:1
11.08.23	Neuchâtel Xamax - Thun	4:0
28.04.23	Neuchâtel Xamax - Thun	1:1

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