Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Challenge League - Round 25

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Qovanaj H. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5


	Thun		Lausanne Ouchy

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.6	3.6
	1.79	3.7	3.95
	1.77	3.93	4.27
	1.78	3.82	4.13	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4
	1.76	3.8	3.98	Watch
	1.79	3.7	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.79)	3.72 ↑ (3.66)	3.98 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
52%

Draw
24.8%

Lausanne Ouchy
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

24.9%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

24.1%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Lausanne Ouchy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Lausanne Ouchy aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Thun - Lausanne Ouchy Predictions

Users Predictions: Thun will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ziswiler N. (G) 37. Dahler L. 4. Montolio G. 19. Bamert J. 47. Fehr F. 8. Janjicic V. 6. Bertone L. (C) 7. Castroman M. 70. Reichmuth N. 11. Stewart L. 18. Ibayi C.	1. Da Silva D. (G) 82. Kaloga I. 23. Kadima R. (C) 71. Malula B. 4. Pos L. 88. Fargues H. 24. Akichi E. 73. Carraco D. 7. Beney R. 97. Caddy W. 20. Garcia N.
Substitutes
29. Frith D. 33. Gutbub M. 25. Marcolli L. 77. Meichtry F. 74. Rastoder E. 16. Roth J. 46. Sessolo H. 24. Steffen N. (G)	8. Bayard R. 29. Gelato L. 21. Jusufi E. 14. Lukembila H. 92. N'Dabrou L. 17. Nomel L. 74. Vachoux J. (G)
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Stevanovic D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Kaloga I. 🟨,
30', Reichmuth N. 🟨,
41', Beney R. 🟨,
45+1', Dahler L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', 0 - 1, Caddy W. ⚽, Beney R. (A),
52', 1 - 1, Montolio G. ⚽, Fehr F. (A),
53', 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Dahler L. ⚽,
66', Stewart L. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑,
69', Montolio G. 🟨,
70', Carraco D. ↓, N'Dabrou L. ↑,
70', Akichi E. ↓, Bayard R. ↑,
71', Beney R. 🟨,
73', Reichmuth N. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
73', Castroman M. ↓, Frith D. ↑,
81', Garcia N. ↓, Lukembila H. ↑,
85', Ibayi C. ↓, Rastoder E. ↑,
85', Janjicic V. ↓, Sessolo H. ↑,
85', Bamert J. 🟨,
90+3', Ziswiler N. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Thun won 0.

Thun is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Lausanne Ouchy is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lausanne Ouchy could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Thun is a favorite.

There will not play in Thun: Burki M. (Yellow Cards) Tebily H. (Injury)

There will not play in Lausanne Ouchy: Heule M. (Injury) Kayombo A. (Yellow Cards) Okuka M. (Injury) Qarri M. (Injury) Rupp N. (Red Card) Toggenburger N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lausanne Ouchy: Nanizayamo M. (Injury) Sutter P. (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Thun won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22:23 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Thun won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Thun - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 51.18%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Challenge League
28.02.25	Thun - Stade Nyonnais	2:2 ✺
23.02.25	Wil 1900 - Thun	2:3 ✺
14.02.25	Aarau - Thun	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Thun - Bellinzona	2:0 ✺
31.01.25	Schaffhausen - Thun	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWLWW
- Lausanne Ouchy
Swiss Challenge League
28.02.25	Lausanne Ouchy - Wil 1900	2:1 ✺
21.02.25	Stade Nyonnais - Lausanne Ouchy	3:0 ✺
15.02.25	Bellinzona - Lausanne Ouchy	0:1 ✺
07.02.25	Lausanne Ouchy - Aarau	2:4 ✺
04.02.25	Schaffhausen - Lausanne Ouchy	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
13.12.24	Lausanne Ouchy - Thun	1:1
02.08.24	Thun - Lausanne Ouchy	1:1
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Thun - Lausanne Ouchy	0:1
Swiss Challenge League
22.04.23	Lausanne Ouchy - Thun	2:2
17.02.23	Thun - Lausanne Ouchy	1:1
14.10.22	Thun - Lausanne Ouchy	0:2
10.09.22	Lausanne Ouchy - Thun	2:2

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