Match Info

Super League - Round 11

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Piccolo L. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1


	Thun		Winterthur

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.31	5.3	7.7
	1.45	4.91	6.15	Watch
	1.34	5.4	7.35	Watch
	1.42	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.45)	5.22 ↑ (4.91)	7.14 ↑ (6.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Thun
69%

Draw
17.9%

Winterthur
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

19.3%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.9%

18.8%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Winterthur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Winterthur than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Thun - Winterthur Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Thun (1.51) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Thun will win (23 of 23 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thun will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Thun (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Winterthur (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Steffen N. (G) 37. Dahler L. 19. Bamert J. 23. Burki M. (C) 27. Heule M. 20. Rupp N. 6. Bertone L. 78. Matoshi V. 77. Meichtry F. 18. Ibayi C. 96. Labeau B.	1. Kapino S. (C) 24. Sidler S. 26. Sahitaj L. 66. Martins M. 18. Diaby S. 45. Jankewitz A. 7. Zuffi L. 10. Schneider R. 22. Durrer A. 23. Kasami P. 17. Hunziker A.
Substitutes
47. Fehr F. 7. Imeri K. 8. Janjicic V. 4. Montolio G. 74. Rastoder E. 70. Reichmuth N. 16. Roth J. 11. Stewart L. 1. Ziswiler N. (G)	68. Beyer B. 99. Burkart N. 44. Cueni S. 11. Dansoko B. 31. Fehr H. 8. Golliard T. 37. Maluvunu E. 14. Momoh F. 5. Muhl L.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Rahmen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Dahler L. ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Bertone L. ⚽, Bamert J. (A),
39', Matoshi V. 🟥,
41', Ibayi C. 🟨,
43', Sahitaj L. ↓, Burkart N. ↑,
43', Bertone L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jankewitz A. ↓, Momoh F. ↑,
53', Durrer A. 🟨,
55', Ibayi C. ↓, Rastoder E. ↑,
55', Rupp N. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
55', Labeau B. ↓, Reichmuth N. ↑,
59', Burkart N. ↓, Beyer B. ↑,
68', Meichtry F. ↓, Fehr F. ↑,
73', Kasami P. ↓, Golliard T. ↑,
73', Diaby S. ↓, Dansoko B. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Rastoder E. ⚽, Dahler L. (A),
85', Bertone L. ↓, Janjicic V. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 1.

Thun has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Winterthur is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Thun is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Winterthur: Arnold R. (Injury) Luthi L. (Thigh Injury) Rohner F. (Injury) Spagnoli A. (Knee Injury) Stillhart B. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Thun won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.8:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Thun - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.31%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Super League
25.10.25	Sion - Thun	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Thun - Servette	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	St. Gallen - Thun	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Young Boys - Thun	4:2 ✺
13.09.25	Thun - Basel	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWLL
- FC Winterthur
Swiss Super League
25.10.25	Winterthur - Luzern	2:2 ✺
18.10.25	Basel - Winterthur	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.10.25	Winterthur - Vaduz	2:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
05.10.25	Winterthur - Lugano	2:4 ✺
27.09.25	Servette - Winterthur	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
06.05.22	Winterthur - Thun	2:2
18.02.22	Thun - Winterthur	2:4
15.10.21	Thun - Winterthur	0:2
20.08.21	Winterthur - Thun	3:0
19.04.21	Winterthur - Thun	1:2
12.03.21	Winterthur - Thun	2:3
05.12.20	Thun - Winterthur	0:0

Upcoming Matches