The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Winterthur 14.8%
Draw 17%
Luzern 68.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.5%
21.9%
55.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.5%
20.9%
58.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Winterthur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Winterthur's form might have worsened.
Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luzern's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Winterthur than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Winterthur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-9.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luzern, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
5.6%
5.6%
88.9%
Winterthur - Luzern Predictions
Users Predictions:
Luzern will win
(16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%). Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
75. Spagnoli A. (G) 33. Citherlet T. 16. Arnold R. (C) 21. Luthi L. 3. Smith R. 6. Essiam E. 7. Zuffi L. 44. Cueni S. 27. Rohner F. 9. Buess R. 35. Maksutaj L.
1. Loretz P. (G) 20. Dorn P. (C) 5. Knezevic S. 4. Bajrami A. 22. Dantas R. 6. Abe T. 24. Owusu T. 11. Di Giusto M. 73. Silva Ferreira L. M. 19. Vasovic A. 16. Kabwit O.
Substitutes
30. Brogli N. (G) 99. Burkart N. 18. Diaby S. 22. Durrer A. 8. Golliard T. 17. Hunziker A. 23. Kasami P. 37. Maluvunu E. 19. Ulrich D.
41. Bock J. (G) 14. Ciganiks A. 9. Grbic A. 10. Karweina S. 2. Ottiger S. 7. Spadanuda K. 27. Villiger L. 81. Von Moos J. 29. Winkler L.
Coaches
Rahmen P.
Frick M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Bajrami A. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Kabwit O. ⚽, Dantas R. (A),
45+1', Citherlet T. 🟥,
45+2', Di Giusto M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Maksutaj L. ↓, Hunziker A. ↑,
54', 0 - 2, Dorn P. ⚽, Vasovic A. (A),
57', Buess R. ↓, Maluvunu E. ↑,
57', Essiam E. ↓, Burkart N. ↑,
62', Di Giusto M. ↓, Karweina S. ↑,
62', Silva Ferreira L. M. ↓, Spadanuda K. ↑,
68', 0 - 3, Kabwit O. ⚽,
73', Zuffi L. ↓, Kasami P. ↑,
73', Kabwit O. ↓, Von Moos J. ↑,
73', Vasovic A. ↓, Villiger L. ↑,
79', Abe T. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
82', Rohner F. ↓, Ulrich D. ↑,
84', Knezevic S. 🟨,
89', Cueni S. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 2.
Winterthur has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Luzern is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Luzern will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Winterthur: Kryeziu M.
(Yellow Cards)
Stillhart B.
(Injury)
There will not play in Luzern: Freimann B.
(Red Card)
Xhemalija D.
(Muscle Injury)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 29:42. (average 1.5:2.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Winterthur won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 1.3:2.6).
Switzerland
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Spagnoli A. (G) 
Essiam E. 
Cueni S. 
Maksutaj L. 
Dorn P. (C) 
Abe T. 
Silva Ferreira L. M. 
Kabwit O. 
Diaby S. 
Ciganiks A. 
Grbic A. 
Frick M. 
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