Match Info

Super League - Round 19

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stockhorn Arena (Thun)

Referee: Kanagasingam A. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Thun		Zürich

	1	X	2
	1.71	4	4	Watch
	1.8	3.9	3.8
	1.75	3.9	4.05
	1.73	4.09	4.83
	1.74	3.95	4.48	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4
	1.77	3.85	4.12	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.01)	3.91 ↑ (3.5)	4.25 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thun
53.9%

Draw
24%

Zürich
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

26.3%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

26.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Thun's performance.

Zürich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zürich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Thun that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zürich than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zürich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Thun - Zürich Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Zürich will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Thun: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Thun (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Steffen N. (G) 37. Dahler L. 19. Bamert J. 23. Burki M. 27. Heule M. 78. Matoshi V. 16. Roth J. 6. Bertone L. 77. Meichtry F. 96. Labeau B. 74. Rastoder E.	25. Brecher Y. (G) 2. Kamberi L. 48. Ihendu K. 27. Sauter I. 17. Phaeton M. 38. Reichmuth M. 6. Tsawa C. 26. Markelo J. 10. Zuber S. 19. Keny P. P. 9. Perea J.
Substitutes
30. Eicher J. (G) 47. Fehr F. 5. Franke D. 33. Gutbub M. 18. Ibayi C. 7. Imeri K. 70. Reichmuth N. 20. Rupp N. 11. Stewart L.	11. Emmanuel U. 1. Huber S. (G) 28. Kovacevic I. 7. Krasniqi B. 29. Reverson D. 46. Stiel J. 36. Tchamda A. 43. Volken N. 44. Walker S.
Coaches
Lustrinelli M.	Hediger D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Kamberi L. ⚽, Tsawa C. (A),
24', Labeau B. 🟨,
25', 0 - 2, Phaeton M. ⚽, Markelo J. (A),
45+4', Kamberi L. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Matoshi V. ↓, Ibayi C. ↑,
46', Meichtry F. ↓, Imeri K. ↑,
53', 1 - 2, Rastoder E. ⚽,
57', Markelo J. 🟨,
60', Tsawa C. ↓, Krasniqi B. ↑,
60', Perea J. ↓, Volken N. ↑,
65', 2 - 2, Burki M. ⚽, Imeri K. (A),
67', Markelo J. ↓, Reverson D. ↑,
74', Rastoder E. ↓, Reichmuth N. ↑,
82', Dahler L. ↓, Fehr F. ↑,
83', Phaeton M. ↓, Emmanuel U. ↑,
83', Reichmuth M. ↓, Tchamda A. ↑,
85', 3 - 2, Ibayi C. ⚽, Imeri K. (A),
89', 4 - 2, Fehr F. ⚽,
90', Labeau B. ↓, Franke D. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).

Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Zürich may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Thun is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Thun: Kait M. (Foot Injury) Ziswiler N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Zürich: Comenencia L. (Inactive) Ligue J. (Yellow Cards) Odera D. (Red Card) Palacio N. (Injury) Rodic M. (Inactive) Vujevic D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Thun: Franke D. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:35. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1.7:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Zürich - the odds 3.32 are the expected chance of winning is 27.73%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Thun
Swiss Super League
16.12.25	Winterthur - Thun	1:4 ✺
13.12.25	Thun - St. Gallen	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Thun - Luzern	4:1 ✺
30.11.25	Lausanne-Sport - Thun	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Thun - Lugano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLL
- FC Zürich
Swiss Super League
17.12.25	Zürich - Lugano	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Zürich - Winterthur	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	St. Gallen - Zürich	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Zürich - Grasshoppers	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Sion - Zürich	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
23.08.25	Zürich - Thun	0:4
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Thun - Zürich	0:0
Swiss Super League
03.08.20	Zürich - Thun	3:3
01.07.20	Thun - Zürich	3:2
02.11.19	Thun - Zürich	0:1
22.09.19	Zürich - Thun	2:0
15.05.19	Zürich - Thun	3:0

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