Match Info

Super League - Round 26

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadion Schützenwiese (Winterthur)

Referee: Sanli H. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Winterthur		Thun

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.75	1.42	Watch
	6.75	5.25	1.37
	5.7	4.75	1.44
	5.9	5.09	1.49
	5.79	5.06	1.47	Watch
	5.75	4.5	1.44
	6.52	4.71	1.42	Watch
	5.33	4.75	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6 ↑ (3.67)	4.86 ↑ (3.78)	1.44 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Winterthur
15.6%

Draw
19.3%

Thun
65%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

24.4%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

23.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Winterthur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Winterthur's form might have worsened.

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thun's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Winterthur than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Winterthur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thun, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Winterthur - Thun Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Thun (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Winterthur (2.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Thun will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Thun will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Winterthur (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Thun (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kapino S. (G) 27. Rohner F. 16. Arnold R. (C) 31. Kryeziu M. 24. Sidler S. 22. Durrer A. 7. Zuffi L. 44. Cueni S. 45. Jankewitz A. 17. Hunziker A. 99. Burkart N.	24. Steffen N. (G) 47. Fehr F. 4. Montolio G. 19. Bamert J. 23. Burki M. (C) 77. Meichtry F. 16. Roth J. 14. Kait M. 78. Matoshi V. 96. Labeau B. 74. Rastoder E.
Substitutes
9. Buess R. 6. Essiam E. 8. Golliard T. 37. Maluvunu E. 5. Muhl L. 3. Pasquier N. 26. Sahitaj L. 10. Schneider R. 75. Spagnoli A. (G)	37. Dahler L. 9. Dursun F. 5. Franke D. 27. Heule M. 18. Ibayi C. 7. Imeri K. 70. Reichmuth N. 20. Rupp N. 25. Spycher T. (G)
Coaches
Rahmen P.	Lustrinelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Kryeziu M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
55', 0 - 1, Meichtry F. ⚽, Matoshi V. (A),
59', 0 - 2, Rastoder E. ⚽, Matoshi V. (A),
60', Jankewitz A. ↓, Golliard T. ↑,
60', Rohner F. ↓, Smith R. ↑,
65', Matoshi V. ↓, Reichmuth N. ↑,
65', Meichtry F. ↓, Imeri K. ↑,
76', Zuffi L. ↓, Schneider R. ↑,
76', Burkart N. ↓, Maluvunu E. ↑,
76', Labeau B. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
76', Rastoder E. ↓, Ibayi C. ↑,
83', 0 - 3, Imeri K. ⚽, Dursun F. (A),
85', Montolio G. ↓, Heule M. ↑,
88', Sidler S. ↓, Essiam E. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 2.

Winterthur is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Thun is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Thun may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Thun is the team to beat.

There will not play in Winterthur: Dansoko B. (Inactive) Diaby S. (Inactive) Luthi L. (Thigh Injury) Momoh F. (Inactive) Stillhart B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Thun: Janjicic V. (Inactive) Ziswiler N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Winterthur: Kasami P. (Inactive) Ulrich D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:19. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Winterthur won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.7:1.8).

Outrights of Swiss Super League for now

Thun: 1.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Thun	10	3	1	6	17:27	-10	10

Last Results with these Odds

Winterthur - the odds 3.67 are the expected chance of winning is 25.13%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Thun - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.49%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Winterthur
Swiss Super League
18.02.26	Winterthur - St. Gallen	1:5 ✺
14.02.26	Young Boys - Winterthur	6:1 ✺
11.02.26	Zürich - Winterthur	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Winterthur - Lugano	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Winterthur - Lausanne-Sport	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLLTW
- FC Thun
Swiss Super League
15.02.26	Thun - Sion	1:0 ✺
12.02.26	Thun - Lausanne-Sport	5:1 ✺
08.02.26	Servette - Thun	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	Basel - Thun	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Thun - Young Boys	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
16.12.25	Winterthur - Thun	1:4
28.10.25	Thun - Winterthur	3:0
Swiss Challenge League
06.05.22	Winterthur - Thun	2:2
18.02.22	Thun - Winterthur	2:4
15.10.21	Thun - Winterthur	0:2
20.08.21	Winterthur - Thun	3:0
19.04.21	Winterthur - Thun	1:2

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