Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Caliente (Tijuana) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	21:10	FOX One, Tubi TV


	Tijuana		UNAM

	1	X	2
	3.70	3.75	1.72
	4.2	3.8	1.6
	4.9	4.15	1.64
	4.59	4.16	1.64	Watch
	4.75	4.05	1.61
	4.47	3.87	1.7
	4.4	4	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.43 ↑ (3.85)	3.97 ↑ (3.85)	1.65 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tijuana
20.8%

Draw
23.2%

UNAM
55.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.2%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Tijuana - UNAM Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paz A. (G) 27. Parra L. 22. Bautista E. 4. Ojeda D. 21. Moran L. 18. Carter T. 17. Motau A. (C) 8. Marroquin A. M. 11. Fuentes D. 9. Surovtseva M. 10. Hancar K.	1. Toledo W. (G) 16. Guerrero A. 3. Mendoza A. 17. Boakye P. 5. Rios X. 8. Pereira A. (C) 31. Montero C. 9. Chinchilla P. 12. Hix A. 10. Torres C. 7. Ribeiro S.
Substitutes
20. Carrandi D. 52. Caudillo D. 78. Del Real B. (G) 3. Enrigue J. 7. Garcia J. 14. Gonzalez V. 6. Ibarra F.	13. Chavero P. 14. Davila J. 15. Gielnik E. 11. Hernandez M. 26. Huerta A. 20. Lopez J. (G) 4. Sainz E.
Coaches
Samayoa F.	Medina R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Motau A. ⚽, Bautista E. (A),
25', Pereira A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Ribeiro S. ⚽, Pereira A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Boakye P. 🟨,
56', Carter T. 🟨,
61', Hix A. ↓, Huerta A. ↑,
65', Fuentes D. 🟨,
67', Surovtseva M. ↓, Carrandi D. ↑,
70', Paz A. 🟨,
73', Montero C. 🟨,
74', Hancar K. 🟥,
82', Carter T. ↓, Enrigue J. ↑,
82', Fuentes D. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
89', Marroquin A. M. ↓, Ibarra F. ↑,
90', Ribeiro S. ↓, Gielnik E. ↑,
90', Parra L. ↓, Gonzalez V. ↑,
90', Guerrero A. ↓, Hernandez M. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 7th and 4th in the Promotion - Liga MX Women Apertura - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Tijuana (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by UNAM have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, UNAM is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Tijuana has recorded 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:24 (averaging 1.3:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tijuana against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 15:7 goals (averaging 1.9:0.9 per game).

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX Women for now

UNAM Pumas W: 1.52%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Tijuana Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
17.10.26	Puebla - Tijuana	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Tijuana - Atlante	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Juárez - Tijuana	5:1 ✺
19.09.26	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Toluca - Tijuana	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TWLLL
- UNAM Pumas Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
18.10.26	UNAM - Atlas	1:0 ✺
02.10.26	UNAM - Tigres UANL	1:3 ✺
28.09.26	Atlante - UNAM	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	UNAM - Puebla	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Cruz Azul - UNAM	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
17.03.26	Tijuana - UNAM	2:1
25.08.25	UNAM - Tijuana	1:0
17.03.25	UNAM - Tijuana	1:0
15.09.24	Tijuana - UNAM	5:1
02.03.24	UNAM - Tijuana	3:3
16.08.23	Tijuana - UNAM	3:2
11.02.23	UNAM - Tijuana	0:1

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