Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Tobol Kostanay		Yelimay Semey

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.30	2.60
	2.32	3.35	2.65	Watch
	2.27	3.65	2.78
	2.14	3.38	3.08	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.7
	2.35	3.4	2.9	Watch
	2.29	3.3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.02)	3.35 ↑ (3.3)	2.76 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
40.1%

Draw
27%

Yelimay Semey
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

26.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

25.9%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Yelimay Semey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tobol Kostanay - Yelimay Semey Predictions

Users Predictions: Tobol Kostanay will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 72. Senhadji R. 4. Cavnic N. 3. Asrankulov R. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 30. Guerra L. 14. Talal A. 99. Lisakovich V. 18. Milovanovic U.	32. Konovalov I. (G) 26. Tanasijevic S. 15. Mittendorfer M. 4. Zhumakhanov A. 20. Ashirbek A. 23. Ilic H. 44. Tulubay A. 18. Orazov R. (C) 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 77. Placca F. 19. Zhaksylykov A.
Substitutes
34. Bakhytkiriev S. 25. Borsic A. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 51. Mukhin D. (G) 5. Ndiaye P. 19. Zhumat D. 57. Zinadin A. 17. Zuev A.	88. Baigaliyev A. 5. Belancic M. 89. China 9. Murillo R. 7. Murtazaev R. 8. Omatay M. 14. Palacio D. 10. Payruz Z. 11. Sviridov I. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G)
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Karpovich A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Placca F. (Penalty Awarded),
23', Tanasijevic S. 🟨,
30', Mittendorfer M. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Zhaksylykov A. ⚽, Orazov R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Zhagorov N. ↓, Ndiaye P. ↑,
67', Orazov R. ↓, China ↑,
67', Placca F. ↓, Sviridov I. ↑,
69', China 🟨,
71', Guerra L. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
73', Zhumakhanov A. ↓, Belancic M. ↑,
84', Tagybergen A. ↓, Zhumat D. ↑,
84', Bakhtiyarov A. ↓, Payruz Z. ↑,
84', Zhaksylykov A. ↓, Murtazaev R. ↑,
90', Myakish M. ↓, Zinadin A. ↑,
90+5', Belancic M. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 6)

Tobol is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Yelimay has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tobol might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
13.09.26	Kairat - Tobol Kostanay	1:4 ✺
06.09.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ulytau	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
25.08.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar	3:2 ✺
16.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWLWW
- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
12.09.26	Yelimay Semey - Zhetysu	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Astana - Yelimay Semey	4:0 ✺
31.08.26	Yelimay Semey - Kairat	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
09.08.26	Yelimay Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0
05.07.25	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	2:3
30.03.25	Tobol Kostanay - Yelimay Semey	1:1
15.09.24	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
06.03.24	Tobol Kostanay - Yelimay Semey	4:2

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