Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 25 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Karabaev S. (Kaz)


	Tobol Kostanay		Kaisar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.70	3.60	3.90
	1.67	3.30	4.35	Watch
	1.78	3.65	4.10
	1.54	3.79	5.76	Watch
	1.73	3.55	4.05
	1.77	3.86	4.07	Watch
	1.70	3.50	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.82)	3.61 ↑ (3.49)	4.33 ↑ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
53.7%

Draw
25.3%

Kaisar
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

26.4%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

25.6%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Kaisar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaisar than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tobol Kostanay will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Ustimenko D. (G) 38. Bakitzhanov A. 22. Marochkin A. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. 30. Guerra L. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 14. Talal A. 18. Milovanovic U. 99. Lisakovich V.	1. Salaydin N. (G) 15. Idrisov N. 25. Bukorac S. 43. Klaidher 3. Tolegenov A. (C) 5. Kenesbek A. 42. Miqueias 47. Konlimkos B. 96. Mukhammed A. 17. Zhumabekov S. 10. Agostinho
Substitutes
34. Bakhytkiriev S. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 33. Pivovarov I. 50. Zhailaubayev A. 7. Zhumashev Z. 19. Zhumat D. 57. Zinadin A. 17. Zuev A.	93. Askarov S. 16. Azhikhan A. (G) 29. Bagdat R. 24. Cuckic N. 70. Ezekiel I. 14. Gustavo Zago 6. Kaldybekov E. 7. Tazhibay B. 13. Zhaksylyk N.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Ferapontov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Myakish M. ⚽, Tagybergen A. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Mukhammed A. ⚽, Idrisov N. (A),
27', 2 - 1, Marochkin A. ⚽, Tagybergen A. (A),
43', Myakish M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tolegenov A. ↓, Cuckic N. ↑,
46', Zhumabekov S. ↓, Zhaksylyk N. ↑,
48', 2 - 2, Mukhammed A. ⚽,
57', Tagybergen A. 🟨,
62', Mukhammed A. ↓, Bagdat R. ↑,
70', 3 - 2, Milovanovic U. ⚽,
71', Konlimkos B. ↓, Gustavo Zago ↑,
79', Bakitzhanov A. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
80', Agostinho ↓, Ezekiel I. ↑,
81', Klaidher 🟨,
83', Lisakovich V. ↓, Zinadin A. ↑,
84', Bukorac S. 🟨,
90+4', Milovanovic U. ↓, Bakhytkiriev S. ↑,
90+5', Talal A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Kaisar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tobol is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 0.9:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22:33	-11	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
16.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Tobol Kostanay - Partizan	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Partizan - Tobol Kostanay	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLW
- Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kazakh Cup
19.08.26	Zhenis - Kaisar	3:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Kaisar - Aktobe	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.07.26	Kaisar - Zhenis	3:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaisar	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Kaisar - Kaspiy Aktau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
17.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 penalties
Kazakh Premier League
28.09.25	Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar	1:0
15.06.25	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	1:1
10.11.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:0
Kazakh League Cup
21.07.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	5:1
Kazakh Premier League
01.06.24	Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar	1:2

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